WASHINGTON, D.C.In unprecedented numbers, Americans say they are
willing to ignore the nominees of the two major political parties and elect
an independent presidential candidate in 1996.
Disillusionment with government and conventional politics is running so
deep there now seems little doubt that at least one credible independent
contender will run for the White House against Democrat Bill Clinton and
the Republican nominee despite major barriers erected after Ross Perot's
campaign in 1992.
As Colin Powell begins a book tour bearing all the earmarks of a presidential
campaign swing, one in four Americans say they are prepared to vote for
an independent with no knowledge of the person's identity, according to
a TimesMirror survey.
In another poll by CNN, 62 percent of those questioned said they would like
to see creation of a new political party.
"Four years ago, I would have said, 'Forget it,' no independent, including
Ross Perot, could win,' said Frank Smallwood, a retired Dartmouth professor
and author of a book on third parties in America.
"This time, there is such real cynicism and frustration that it is
within the realm of possibility," he said.
According to Stan Greenberg, who does polling for Clinton: "The environment
is very open to independent candidates. The loyalties to both parties are
weak. Cynicism is high and growing. "We are in a period of spiraling
political decline that embodies both parties. There is an immense opportunity
for upheaval."
Meanwhile, he said: "Three quarters of the public say that the government
cannot be trusted to do the right thing. ... That's the highest it's been
in polling. Something is happening."
Besides Powell and Perot, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, retiring Democratic Sen.
Bill Bradley of New Jersey and former
Connecticut Gov. Lowell Weicker, who governed as an independent, are
testing public responses to independent candidacies.
Hard-right conservative Republican Patrick Buchanan also might run as an
independent if he fails to win the GOP nomination.
The most intriguing possibility is a Powell-Bradley ticket, which would
appeal to the broad disaffected middle of the electorate, including many
Democrats disappointed with Clinton.
Historically, Americans have been fickle in their willingness to stick with
an appealing independent when election day rolls around. In the spring of
1980, nearly one in three Americans questioned told pollsters they would
support John Anderson, a former Republican,
as he launched his independent candidacy against Ronald Reagan and unpopular
incumbent Jimmy Carter.
In the end, though, Anderson drew just 6 percent of the vote.
That may happen again in 1996. But it is useful to recall that three years
ago Perot drew 19 percent of the vote, despite
a candidacy rated at best as quirky, giving heart to any serious independent
like Powell who has broad appeal among the disaffected in both parties.
Yet, the odds against a successful independent candidacy are still enormous.
At both the national and state levels, Democrats and Republicans have erected
institutional and financial barriers that make it difficult for independents
or third-party contenders to get on the ballot or compete for the attention
of voters.
In some states in the past few years, deadlines for getting into the race
have been made dramatically earlier, a direct consequence of Perot's candidacy
in 1992. By one estimate, a third party or independent candidate must gather
810,000 signatures on petitions to gain access to the ballot in all 50 states,
many multiples of what is required for major party contenders. [For an overview
of ballot access requirements, see Winger, Ballot
Access for Minor Candidates.]
Signature-gathering and confirming names of supporters takes both money
and time, and thousands of volunteers. [See also: Ballot
Access - The View from the Street: A conversation with Bill Redpath.]
"You need an army of people to just get on the ballot," said Gillespie,
the Presbyterian College professor. "And I think Colin Powell could
put together that kind of army."
Besides the mechanics of running, the fund-raising demands
on independents are overwhelming. Each major party gets $60 million
in public funds to run a general election campaign every four years, plus
$12 million for its national nominating convention, plus millions of dollars
from private contributions nominally designated for party activities.
That alone is an argument for Powell to run as a Republican, even though
that would entail a major battle with the social conservatives.
Perot spent $60 million of his own money in 1992, and it is estimated that
any serious independent would need to raise something approaching that amount
in 1996.
"The really expensive part is getting the message out so people take
you seriously," said Republican pollster Fred Steeper. "Americans
don't automatically discard third-party candidates as not serious. But they
only give serious consideration if [they are] visible." [See Berkovitz,
Political Media Buying: A Brief Guide.]
That takes money, the kind that Perot has or the kind that a well-known
candidate like Powell can raise quickly.
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