Dani Rodrik

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Recent Research by Dani Rodrik

Note: Some articles from this page are now found on the Commentary page
Most recent update: September 25, 2012.
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Unconditional Convergence in Manufacturing, September 2012. This is a substantially revised version of “Unconditional Convergence” below. Forthcoming in the Quarterly Journal of Economics.

After the Fall: The Future of Global Cooperation (with Jeff Frieden, Michael Pettis, and Ernesto Zedillo), July 2012. Don't count on global governance.

Who Needs the Nation State? (Roepke Lecture), May 2012.  Actually, we all do.

Unconditional Convergence, revised October 2011. Yes, it does exist, but you have to look for it in manufacturing industries.

The Future of Economic Convergence. August 2011. Do not expect miracles.

Globalization, Structural Change, and Productivity Growth (with Margaret McMillan), February 2011. In some countries structural change enhances economy-wide productivity, in others it reduces it.  Why? Dataset and Employment VA data.

Making Room for China in the World Economy, December 2009. Revaluation of the Chinese currency is not the simple solution to global macroeconomic imbalances that many think.

Diagnostics before Prescription, December 2009. A paper for a Journal of Economic Perspectives Symposium on Economic Development.

The Turkish Economy After the Crisis, December 2009. Some changes in fiscal and exchange-rate policies are called for.

Development Policy and Development Economics: An Introduction (with Mark Rosenzweig), July 2009. The introduction to the next volume of the Handbook of Development Economics.

Growth after the Crisis, May 2009. Yes, there will be some.

The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth revised, October 2008. Undervaluation is good for growth, but why? Data and replication files

The New Development Economics: We Shall Experiment, But How Shall We Learn? revised, July 2008. There is a lot more convergence between macro- and micro-development economists than meets the eye.

Reconfiguring Industrial Policy: A Framework with an Application to South Africa (with Ricardo Hausmann and Chuck Sabel), August 2007. How to improve the practice of industrial policy in South Africa.

Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint? (with Arvind Subramanian), March 2008. It has a lot to do with the exchange-rate consequences of capital inflows.

Second-best Institutions January 2008. If you think best-practice is the way to go in institutional reform, think again.

Normalizing Industrial Policy August 2007. The practical problems confronting industrial policy are no different from those in, say, education policy or macroeconomic policy.

How to Save Globalization from its Cheerleaders July 2007. If you like globalization and want to maintain it, don't push market liberalization too far.

Doomed to Choose: Industrial Policy as Predicament (with Ricardo Hausmann), September 2006.

Understanding South Africa's Economic Puzzles August 2006. Why is unemployment so high and growth so low in South Africa? Because of neglect of non-resource tradables.

Industrial Development: Stylized Facts and Policies Revised, November 2006. Industrial development requires trade and exchange rate policies that are specifically geared to that purpose.

Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? January 2006. The Washington Consensus is dead. What will take its place?

What's So Special About China's Exports? January 2006. China is exporting stuff that is way too sophisticated for its level of income, and that explains part of its success.

The Social Cost of Foreign Exchange Reserves, December 2005. Developing countries are paying a high (and preventable) cost for self-insurance against capital-market follies. Revised version published in the International Economic Journal, September 2006.

What You Export Matters (with Ricardo Hausmann and Jason Hwang), revised, June 2006. Data and data description

Why We Learn Nothing from Regressing Economic Growth on Policies, March 2005. A short paper on the (mis)use of growth regressions.

Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes? (with Romain Wacziarg) January 2005. The short answer is: no.

Rethinking Economic Growth in Developing Countries, October 2004. The Luca d'Agliano Lecture for 2004.

Growth Diagnostics (with Ricardo Hausmann and Andres Velasco), Revised, March 2005. The trick is to identify the binding constraint to economic growth. This paper shows why and how.

Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century, September 2004. Just when you thought it was dead...

Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships (with Roberto Rigobon), May 2004. A new attempt to identify the causal relationships among institutions, income, openness, and geography.

Growth Accelerations (with Ricardo Hausmann and Lant Pritchett), revised August 2005. There are many more of them than is commonly thought; this is an attempt to understand what determines their occurrence. Data for probits

Getting Institutions Right, April 2004. A user's guide to the recent literature on institutions and growth.

From Hindu Growth to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition (with Arvind Subramanian), February 2004. No, it had nothing to do with IT and outsourcing.

Discovering El Salvador's Production Potential (with Ricardo Hausmann), September 2003. Part of a report on El Salvador's economic strategy, and an attempt to operationalize ideas in the other papers on this site.

On the Efficacy of Reforms: Policy Tinkering, Institutional Change, and Entrepreneurship (with Murat Iyigun), revised October 2004. When policy tinkering beats structural reform, and vice versa.

Growth Strategies, a paper for the Handbook of Economic Growth, revised October 2004.

Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development (with Arvind Subramanian and Francesco Trebbi), revised October 2002. Data

When Economic Reform Goes Wrong: Cashews in Mozambique (with Margaret McMillan and Karen Horn Welch), July 2002. An analysis of the case that became a microcosm of the globalization debate.

Feasible Globalizations, July 2002. There are limits to how far we can push deep integration, but luckily much more economic benefit can be squeezed out of globalization by designing the rules appropriately.

In Search of the Holy Grail: Policy Convergence, Experimentation, and Economic Performance (with Sharun Mukand), revised July 2002. A paper on the theory and empirics of policy choice in a world where institutions are context-specific. Publication version is here, with the appendix.

Economic Development as Self-Discovery (with Ricardo Hausmann), revised April 2003. New-age economics meets the Washington Consensus.

Why Are Some People (and Countries) More Protectionist Than Others? (with Anna Maria Mayda), revised version, January 2002. Contains new results. Stolper-Samuelson does really well.

Comments at a Conference on Immigration and the Welfare State, July 2001. Why is trade in labor services treated so differently than trade in goods or capital?

Intitutions, Integration, and Geography: In Search of the Deep Determinants of Economic Growth September 2001. An introduction to an edited volume of analytic growth narratives. See here for the country studies.

The Global Governance of Trade as if Development Really Mattered, April 2001. A paper prepared for the UNDP.

Did the Malaysian Capital Controls Work? (with Ethan Kaplan), revised February 2001. The answer depends on the counterfactual, but if the relevant alternative was an IMF-style program, they worked very well indeed.

Critiques of three recent papers on Trade and Growth:

Comments on "Outward-Orientation and Development: Are the Revisionists Right?" by T.N. Srinivasan and J. Bhagwati (September 1999 version). This is actually the text of a letter sent to the authors (minus some personal remarks), which I have decided to post because I am frequently asked about this paper.

Comments on "Estimating the Effects of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," by J. Frankel and A. Rose (October 21, 2000 version).

Comments on "Trade, Growth, and Poverty," by D. Dollar and A. Kraay (October 2000).

Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence (with Francisco Rodriguez), newly revised, May 2000. A re-examination of the relationship between trade policy and economic growth and a critical review of the literature. Published in Macroeconomics Annual 2000, eds. Ben Bernanke and Kenneth S. Rogoff, MIT Press for NBER, Cambridge, MA, 2001.

Exchange Rate Regimes and Institutional Arrangements in the Shadow of Capital Flows September 2000. A paper for a conference in Malaysia.

Participatory Politics, Social Cooperation, and Economic Stability, December 1999. A short paper for the American Economic Association meetings in Boston, January 7-9, 2000.

Trade Policy Reform as Institutional Reform August 2000. Ask not what it does for your exports, but what it does for the quality of your institutions.

Development Strategies for the Next Century, February 2000. A reiteration and integration of various themes from some of my previous papers.

Institutions for High-Quality Growth: What They Are and How to Acquire Them, October 1999. Paper prepared for an IMF conference on Second Generation Reforms.  Revised version published in Studies in Comparative International Development, Fall 2000.

Why Is There So Much Economic Insecurity in Latin America? August 1999. Revised version in CEPAL Review.

How Far Will International Economic Integration Go? Revised September 1999. Some wild speculation on the future of the world economy. Published in Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 2000.

Capital Mobility, Distributive Conflict and International Tax Coordination (with Tanguy van Ypersele), revised, October 1999. A formal model on why international tax coordination may be needed to get labor to go along with capital mobility.  Published in Journal of International Economics, vol. 54, no. 1, 2001.

Short-Term Capital Flows (with Andres Velasco) May 1999. The consequences (and causes) thereof. Published in Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1999.

Governing the Global Economy: Does One Architectural Style Fit All? April 1999 (Edited June 1999). How far will the new international financial architecture go, and what will it cost the developing countries?

Democracies Pay Higher Wages October 1998. The title says it all.  Revised and expanded version of NBER Working Paper No. 6364.  Published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 1999.

Where Did All The Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses August 1998. A re-interpretation of recent economic history (revised version of NBER working paper No. 6350). Revised version published in Journal of Economic Growth, December 1999.

Saving Transitions July 1998. On the causes and consequences of rapid increases in saving rates. Published in The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 14, no.3, September 2000.

The Debate Over Globalization: How to Move Forward By Looking Backward May 1998. A paper prepared for a conference on the Future of the World Trading System, IIE, Washington, DC, April 15, 1998.

Who Needs Capital-Account Convertibility? February 1998. A short paper for a Princeton International Finance Section symposium.

Capital Mobility and Labor April 1998. Draft paper prepared for the NBER workshop on Trade, Technology, Education, and the U.S. Labor Market, April 30-May 1, 1998.

Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments? January 1998. The revised version of NBER Working Paper No. 5537, published in the Journal of Political Economy, October 1998.

Democracy and Economic Performance December 1997. A paper for a conference in South Africa.

Globalization, Social Conflict and Economic Growth December 1997. The 1997 Raul Prebisch lecture delivered at UNCTAD (published in The World Economy, March 1998).

Trade Policy and Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa November 1997. A study commissioned by the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

What Drives Public Employment? August 1997. Published in Review of Development Economics, 4(3), October 2000.

TFPG Controversies, Institutions, and Economic Performance in East Asia February 1997.



For a complete list of papers and publications, see Dani Rodrik's curriculum vitae.

Older NBER working papers not listed above. (Be sure to enter "Rodrik" in the box.)

Newspaper columns written for Project Syndicate newspapers.

Group of 24 Discussion papers

To request copies of working papers not available at this site, please e-mail Julie DeBenedictis.

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