JEFFREY FRANKEL ON AMERICAN & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY
Op-eds & Speeches on American Economic Policy 2001-12
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee
International Economic Policy
Prior years: Recovery Watch, 2010
Obamanomics Watch, 2009
Recession Watch, 2008
International News Media
Articles on Domestic American Political Economy
“Snake-Oil Tax Cuts,” Economic Policy Institute, Briefing Paper 221. Presented at panel on The Economics, History, and Public Debate of Supply-Side Policies, Center for American Progress, Washington, DC, Sept.2008. HKS RWP 08-056 . [Cited in "Financial crisis: the latest blow to free-market 'dogma'," D.Francis, Christian Science Monitor, Oct. 6, 2008.]
"Responding to Crises,"
Annual Monetary Conference,
What Can an Economic Adviser Do When He Disagrees with the President?", Challenge, 46, no. 3, May/June 2003, pp.1-24.
Republican and Democratic Presidents Have Switched Economic Policies,” Milken Institute Review. vol. 5, no.1, 1st Quarter, 2003, pp.18-25. [Lawyer John Dean apparently agrees, Feb. 28, 2008.]
Op-eds & Speeches on Developments in American Economic Policy
"Did Obama Turn Around the Economy?" Project Syndicate, Feb.20, 2012. At Fair Observer. Background graphs: "The 2009 Economic Turnaround."
"Economic & Fiscal Outlook," Oct.22, 2012. April 30. March 6, 2012. Senior Executive Fellows, HKS, "Back to School on the Budget: History & Arithmetic," Slides, SEF, March 14, 2011.
May Be Slow, But at Least It's a Recovery,"
Oct. 25, 2010.
“Is the Debt Important?”, New England Republican Council Issues Conference, Boston, April 2007. “What Do Economists Mean by Globalization? Implications for Inflation and Monetary Policy,” Oct.4 draft; for Academic Consultants Meeting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Sept.28, 2006. Slides with graphs. To be published in Economic Integration - Global Experience, The Icfai University (Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India): Hyderbad; expected date: 2007.
"The Economic Outlook and the Twin Deficits," Boston Economic Club, May 24, 2006. Earlier versions were presented at The Columbus Group, Harvard University, Feb.; an Ambrosetti meeting, Villa d’Este, Italy, March; the Economic Advisory Panel Meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, April; and the Real Estate Academic Initiative, at Harvard University, April 19, 2006.
“How disruptive would $80-$100 oil be to the US and global economies?” April 2006, question for The International Economy.
"As a Budget Storm Gathers, Bush Ignores Fiscal Forecasts," published in The Forward, Sept. 16-22, 2005.
"What Can An Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?" The Pierson Lecture, Swarthmore College, Apr. 2005. . Incl. tribute to Bernie Saffran.
"The Wrong Approach," Jeffrey Frankel and Jessica Stern, The Baltimore Sun, Oct. 29, 2004. Pg. 17A.
"A Debate on the Deficit," Challenge, Nov.2004, pp. 12-45. Reprinted as Chapter 13, The Political Economy of the Deficit, in The Means to Prosperity: Fiscal Policy Reconsidered, edited by Per Gunnar Berglund & Matias Vernengo (Routledge, NY), 2006, pp.255-286.
"Ten Defenses for Irresponsible Tax Cuts, and Why They are Wrong," panel on The Budget Deficit and the American Economy with Richard Darman, Glenn Hubbard, and Alice Rivlin, Kennedy School, April 30, 2004.
"It's a Tough Job to Create Jobs," Washington Post, Outlook, Sunday, April 11, 2004.
Interview Clip on Taxes and the 2004 Presidential Election.
"The Jobless Recovery," published in The Forward, Dec. 19, 2003.
A Link Between Bush Tax Policy and Recession? Oct.9, 2003.
“Lessons from Recent US Economic Policy,” from Economics for An Imperfect World, presented at Joe Stiglitz’s 60th Birthday, Columbia Univ., Oct.2003.
[List of Economists Opposing the Bush Tax Cuts, EPI, 2003]
"What is the White House Trying to Do?" published as "Bush's Tax cut Policy is a Bad Investment," in The Forward, June 27, 2003.
When An Economic Adviser Disagrees with the President, Financial Times, March 31, 2003 (.pdf)
"Deficits and Decades: Lessons from US Economic Policy in the 1990s," speech at ICRIER, New Delhi, India, Jan. 15, 2003.
"Trading Places", Financial Times, September 13, 2002.
"Implications of the 9/11 Attacks: Historical Precedents," presented at Academic Advisory Council, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 9/21/01; and BCSIA Board of Directors, Harvard 10/9/01.
Chapter 2, "The United States in the World Economy: Challenges of Recovery," 1984 Economic Report of the President pdf, US Council of Economic Advisers, 1984.
Developments in International Economic Policy
“Economic Shocks and Their Implications for International Politics,” Survival, no.3, June-July 2012. M-RCBG WP 12-05. Written March 2012, for Conference on A New Era of Geo-economics: Assessing the Interplay between Political and Economic Risk, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Bahrain, March 2012.
"Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2011. NBER WP 17239, July 2011; Summary in NBER Digest, Nov.2011. ["Should governments be more pessimistic?" Washington Post wonkblog, 10/27/2011. 4. Seattle Times, 7/31/2011. "Decade of Stimulus" Bloomberg, Aug.4.]
“A Lesson From the
South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries,”
Comparative Economic Studies,
slides, India Planning Commission
Workshop on Restoring Inclusive Growth,
The Danger of Divergence: Transatlantic Cooperation on Financial Reform, complete report, Atlantic Council, Oct. 2010.
"IMF: Destroyer of Nations?" video, Crosstalk, Oct. 18, 2010.
"The World Monetary System: Time for a 'New Bretton Woods'?" presented at HM Treasury, June 16, 2010, London. "What’s 'In' and What’s 'Out' in Global Money," Finance and Development, IMF, September 2009, 13-17.
"The Dollar Share in Central Banks’ FX Reserves Resumes its Decline" Blog, Oct.1, 2009.
Crisis," slides, CID, Sept.14,
Financial Crisis," slides, Boston Committee on Foreign Relations,
The Union Club, Boston, May 12.
"The Current Global
Crisis," slides, Cutting Edge in Development Thinking,
Harvard, May 6, 2009.
"Anatomy of the Financial Crisis, with comments on Acemoglu, Brunnermeier, El-Erian and Portes," slides, Meeting of Commission on Growth & Development , at Center for International Development, Harvard, April 20-21, 2009.
"The Global Economic Situation," slides. China Future Leadership Project, Feb. 3, 2009.
“Recession in Advanced Economies: A View from the United States," slides, The Bellagio Group, Toronto, Jan. 30, 2009.
euro is a credible challenger to the dollar in the wake of the financial crisis
of 2008." CQ Global Researcher, vol. 2, no. 10, Oct. 2008,
"The Twin Deficits Are Back!" Fidelity Investments, May 5, 2008. Slides.
Comment on “How Long Can the Unsustainable US Deficit Be Sustained?” by C. Bertaut, S.Kamin & C.Thomas, Conference on Global Economy in Balance, U.Wisconsin, May 2, 2008.
the Euro Will Rival the Dollar”
(with Menzie Chinn),
International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no. 1, 2008, 49-73.
Revised version of “The Euro May Over
the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency."
RWP08-016 and NBER
WP 13909 .
“Getting Carried Away: How the Carry Trade and Its Potential Unwinding Can Explain Movements in International Financial Markets,” Nov. 2007. Version edited (no footnotes or references) for the Milken Institute Review, 1st Quarter, 2008 .
Reasons We Are Given Not to Worry About the US Deficits,” Working Paper No.
58, 2009, Commission on Growth and Development, chaired by
Originally written for workshop on Global Trends and
Challenges, Yale University, Sept. 2007, as
“Nine Reasons We Are Given Not
to Worry About the US Deficits,”
“Nine Reasons You Have Heard Why We Are Not Supposed to Worry About the US Deficits,” Powerpt slides, World Economic Outlook Conference, Global Insight, Boston, Oct. 30, 2007.
“Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates: An Equilibrium Model vs.a Disequilibrium Reality," rev. Dec. 2006 Comments in response to the paper (AER 2008) by R. Caballero , E. Farhi & P. Gourinchas, BIS Working Paper 222, December 2006, BIS Annual Research Conference, Brunnen, Switzerland, June 19-20, 2006 . KSG RWP06-035. Abstract,
[JF quote in "Two Deficits, Fed Turnover ," The New York Times, International, Feb. 2, 2006]
"Could the Twin Deficits Jeopardize US Hegemony?" in Twin Deficits, Growth and Stability of the US Economy, Special Issue of Journal of Policy Modeling, edited by Dominick Salvatore, vol. 28, no.6, Sept. 2006, pp. 653-663.
What's Ahead: Decade of the Dollar, the Euro, or the RMB?" Eurobank, Athens, Greece, June 21, 2005.
"The Dollar and the Deficit: Is a Crisis Looming?" Spring Conference, KSG, Harvard University, May 14, 2005. slides
“Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?” with Menzie Chinn, 2007, in G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (University of Chicago Press: Chicago). NBER WP 11510. Newport, RI, June 2005. .
"Back to The Twin Deficits," Notes presented at Bellagio Group, Amsterdam, Jan. 20-21, 2005. Written up for The Analyst, Harvard Investment Quarterly, May 7, 2005.
"Twin Deficits and Twin Decades," presented at a conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at Wequassett, June 2004. In The Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy (MIT Press: Cambridge MA), edited by Richard Kopcke, Geoffrey Tootell and Robert Triest, 2006, pp. 321-335.
"The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership". Published as "Bush's Spectacular Failure" [not my choice of title!] in The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.
"Economic Advantages of America," delivered at Schloss Schönbrunn,Vienna, Austria, 16 May, 2001; and Dublin Castle, Dublin, Ireland, 7 June, 2001
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