European Monetary Union and the euro

NEW “The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade:  Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?”
revised April 2009, WCFIA WP 2009-008;  forthcoming in Europe and the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press).    Dataset.    HKS video.   Slides, NBER conference, Oct. 2008.      Slides, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.       NBER WP 14542, Dec. 2008.    RWP08-076, Harvard Kennedy School;  Slides, NBER conference, Oct. 2008.   Earlier version, “The estimated effects of the euro on trade” presented July 2008, at 14th Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Croatia.   

NEW Comments on “The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002,” by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea. Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, January 3, 2009. Link from "Comments" to the attached powerpoint file. 

 “Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for conference on Common Currency and Its Future Lesson for the New Member States, National Bank of Poland, October 15, 2008.   Appears in  Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union, Warsaw.    

“Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.   Journal volume to be edited by Paul Wachtel.    RWP08-059, Harvard University, October 2008.  Includes  Graph: Shortly before Slovenia joined the euro in January 2007, its interest rates converged to Euro interest rates .

NEW "The Euro Could Surpass the Dollar Within 10 Years,"  Vox, March 18, 2008.
["This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage,"  Financial Times,  Wolfgang Münchau, March 23 2008.]

NEW “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency” (with Menzie Chinn), Feb.2008.  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers) 11, no. 1, 2008.

My comments on   "The Euro's Trade Effects," ECB WP 594, March 2006, by Richard Baldwin.  For What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?" conference at European Central Bank, Frankfurt, 16 June, 2005.   Forthcoming.

"Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" (with Menzie Chinn).   In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida, University of Chicago Press, 2007.      NBER WP No. 11508. 

"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU",    in  Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges,  edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005. 

"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109.

“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, October 30, 2002.

"EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, presented at Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000; and the Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000. (In Italian)

"On the Euro: Impacts on Members and Non-Members," and "Keynote Address," The European Conference Centre, Luxembourg, 3-4 December 1998. Published in The Euro as a Stabilizer in the International Economic System, Armand Clesse, editor, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell MA, 1999.

"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criterion" (with Andrew Rose), NBER Working Paper No. 5700.   The Economic Journal, vol. 108, no. 449, July 1998, 1009-1025.  Reprinted in Swedish Economic Policy Review 4, 1997, 487-512.  To be reprinted also in The Political Economy of Monetary Union, edited by P. DeGrauwe, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar, 2001.

"The European Monetary System: Credible at Last?" (with Steve Phillips), Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 44 (1992), 791-816.

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