Latin America

"Cuban Time Travel," Project Syndicate, Nov.22, 2012.  Abridged from "Cuba: A Trip to 1959," Jeff Frankel's blog, Nov. 2012.

NEW   “A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality:  The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile,” 2011.  Forthcoming, 2012, Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance,  Series on Central Banking Analysis, and Economic Policies , 2012.  NBER WP No.16945, April 2011.  Also in Spanish translation, Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), 2011 Central Bank of Chile, vol.14, no.2, Aug., pp.39-78.    Condensed from "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," HKS RWP11-012, Feb.2011 (full version with Fixed Effects). CID WP 216,  Jan.2011.  Central Bank of Chile  WP 604,  Jan.2011.  Conference draft, Slides, 14th Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Oct.2010, Santiago.  Data. In Stata.  Data explanation.  Data for figures.  
     
"A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Nov. 22, 2010, for Comparative Economic Studies.  
Short version:, "What Lessons Do Developing Countries Have for Fiscal Policy in the US?," slides, Workshop on Restoring Inclusive Growth,  NYU, Oct. 7-8, 2010.

    

“ “A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America,"  Economia, vol.11 (Brookings Institution), 2011.  Economia panel meeting, May 2011.  NBER WP 16362, Sept. 2010.  Revised from "A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Myths and Realities of Commodity Dependence: Policy Challenges and Opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank, 2009.  Slides;  Box in Natural Resources in Latin America and the Caribbean: Beyond Booms and Busts, World Bank, 2010.

"Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?,"   Open Economies Review vol.22, No.1, Feb.2011, pages 1-16.    NBER WP 15419, Oct.2009.    Bilateral remittance data: Lueth, C.America.      Presented, May 2009 at Immigration and Global Development conference, Center for Global Development, Washington DC. slides.

“Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change Policy on Mexico and other Developing Countries in Coming Years,” memo to Mexican President Felipe Calderón, Jan. 2009.   Chapter 2.2 of The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009, edited by Ricardo Hausmann,  CID, Harvard University; and Emilio Lozoya Austin and Irene Mia, WEF. (Geneva: World Economic Forum), 2009.   Released in June 2009 at a workshop in Mexico City attended by President Calderón.

  

"Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries,"  IMF Staff Papers, 52, no. 2, 2005.  The Mundell Fleming Lecture, IMF 5th Annual Research Conference.   NBER WP No. 11510. 

"Comment on Caballero 'Structural Volatility in Latin America',"  in Economia, Journal of the Latin American Economic Association, Vol.1, No.1, Fall 2000, pp. 89-107 (Brookings Press).

"Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén; Brookings Trade Forum 2000, edited by Susan Collins and Dani Rodrik (Brookings Institution, Washington DC).

 "Verifiability: A Rationale for the Failure of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes,"  InterAmerican Seminar in Economics, Buenos Aires, Dec. 1999, organized by Sebastian Edwards and Edgardo Zablotsky.  Revised as World Bank Pol.Res.WP No 2397. 

"Is the US Interested in Exercising Dollar Diplomacy?" address to Conference on Dollarization,  InterAmerican Development Bank, Panama, July 1999.

 "Dollarization in Latin America: Solution or Straitjacket?" remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington DC, April 6, 1999, and IMF, June 24, 1999.

"Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?"  English version in Estudios de Economia (Universidad de Chile: Santiago), vol. 24, no. 2, December 1997, 263-285. 
Spanish version in Afluencia de Capitales y Establizacion en America Latina, Roberto Steiner, ed., Fedesarrollo, Bogota, 1994: 241-267.     Latinamerican Macroeconomic Network, Cartagena, 1993;   IMF Working Paper No. 94/159. 

 "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," with Chudozie Okongwu, International Journal of Finance and Economics 1, no. 1, Jan. 1996, 1-23.

"Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Mexican Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?" with Sergio Schmukler, Open Economies Review 7, Fall 1996, 511-534.  Fed.Res.Bd. Int.Fin.Disc.Paper No. 563. Condensed version of CIDER WP No. C96-067.  Reprinted in Currency Crashes: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses, edited by George Tavlas, Kluwer, 1997, 81-104.

"Crises, Contagion, and Country Funds: Effects on East Asia and Latin America" with Sergio Schmukler,  Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates: Lessons from the Pacific Rim, Reuven Glick, editor; Cambridge University Press, 1998.  WP No. PB96-04, Fed.Res.Bk. of San Francisco..

"Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural" (with E. Stein and S.J.Wei), full version, CIDER Working Paper No. C94-034. Abridged version, Journal of Development Economics 47, no. 1, June 1995, 61-95.

"Lessons from the Mexican Crisis," presented at CFR, April 1995; Federal Reserve System Meeting, Washington, D.C., April; and the Fed.Res.Bk.of Atlanta's Financial Markets conference, Coral Gables, March 1995.

"The 'Obvious Peso Blunder' at Treasury," testimony before Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, March 9, 1995.   

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