"Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?" (with David Parsley and Shang-Jin Wei),  KSG RWP05-016   NBER WP no. 11199, March 2005.

“Managing Macroeconomic Crises: Policy Lessons” (with Shang-Jin Wei). Chapter 7 in Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner’s Guide,  edited by Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto (Cambridge Univ.Press), 2005.   Video of presentation 2/27/04, World Bank.  NBER WP 10907.    Tables & Figures. 

"The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises" (with Nouriel Roubini) [Summary], NBER WP 8634.  In Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, edited by Martin Feldstein, 2003.

[Brazil contagion, The Connection radio show, August 7, 2002]

"Ten Lessons Learned from the Korean Crisis", NBER, Feb. 2000, Cambridge, MA.

"On Reports that Someone in Washington Has Mislaid Russia," The Future of Russia, Dec.1999, Harvard University.   Published as "Who Lost Russia?" in newspapers of Project Syndicate, Nov. 2000.

"The Balance Between Adjustment and Financing," in Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary System, edited by P. Kenen and A. Swoboda, International Monetary Fund, 2002.

On Exchange Rate Regimes            

NEW “Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes” (with Daniel Xie), forthcoming American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 2010.  NBER WP No. 15620.   Atlanta, Presentation, January 2010.  Peterson Institute for International Economics WP 10-1.

"What’s 'In' and What’s 'Out' in Global Money,"  in Finance and Development, 46, no.3, September 2009, 13-17.    Abridged, from “On Global Currencies,” speech for Exchange Rates: The Global Perspective,  ECB, June 2009.   RWP09-026, Sept.  

“Exchange Rate Regimes: Some New Themes,” lecture slides,  IMF Institute, May 28, 2009.        “Exchange Rate Regimes: Issues in Research and Policy,” lecture slides,   IMF Institute, May 25, 2007.

"Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes:  Synthesis of  The Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights,"  Condensed for publication, May 2008;  IMF Staff Papers 2008, vol.55.   Replication files.    slides.   Complete version with all appendix tables: NBER WP No. 14016, May 2008, March 2008.    Or, with selection of appendix tables: HKS RWP08-026, May 2008.   Replication files.      Slides incl. update of China and other weekly-frequency estimates, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.   Slides, U.Mass.Amherst, May 2009.
         For China                               

NEW  Blogpost: The RMB Has Now Moved Back to the Dollar -- Estimates updated through February 2009 show that the basket implicitly underlying the Chinese currency has abandoned the substantial weight that it had placed on the euro in 2007, and for the last six months has been back to full weight on the dollar. Tables.       ["China Resumes Dollar Pegging On The Sly," Forbes.com, March 27, 2009.]

“New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime" ,”  In Pacific Economic Review 14, no. 3, August 2009 (Wiley InterScience, Blackwell Publ.), pp. 346-360.     final draft, June 2009; proofs.    NBER WP no. 14700, Feb. 2009.   Data.
New Estimation of the RMB Regime (incl. appendix tables) in China’s Emerging Financial Markets: Challenges and Opportunities, J.Tatom, G.Yago, and J. Barth, eds. (Springer).    RWP08-077, Harvard University.    

"The RMB: China's Exchange Rate Policy," Harvard Project for Asian and International Relations," April 4, 2008.  slides.

 “Comments on Cline and Williamson’s ‘Estimates of the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Renminbi?’,”   in Debating China's Exchange Rate Policy, edited by M. Goldstein and N. Lardy, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 2008, 155-165.   From 2007 conference.

“Comment on ‘China’s Current Account and Exchange Rate,’ by Yin-Wong Cheung, Menzie Chinn and Eiji Fuji,” in China’s Growing Role in World Trade,   forthcoming, NBER, edited by R. Feenstra and S.J. Wei, (University of Chicago Press).

"Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime," (with Shang-Jin Wei),  Economic Policy 51, July 2007, pp. 575-614.  Panel meeting, Feb.12, 2007.  Video interview.   Vox summary.   Earlier working paper versions contain more extensive tables: CEPR DP No. 6264, April 2007, and NBER WP 13100, May 2007.    Zipped programs and datasets.

"On the Yuan: The Choice Between Adjustment Under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate,"  in Understanding the Chinese Economy, edited by Gerhard Illing.(Oxford University Press), 2006.  (With abstract), CESifo Economic Studies, Munich.  RWP04-037.   NBER WP 11274.

“The Balassa-Samuelson Relationship and the Renminbi,” KSG, Dec. 2006.

“On the Renminbi,”  CESifo Forum, vol 6, no. 3, Autumn 2005, p. 16-21 Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich.

[China's Announcement of de-linking from RMB to the $ -- Segment on On Point radio show July 21, 2005]

        Exchange Rates For Other Emerging Markets     

CID  projects, Harvard University:      
        CID South Africa Growth Initiative, including recent working papers and news. 
         Project on South Africa: Performance and Prospects,  Center for International Development : 
      "On the Rand: Determinants of the South African Exchange Rate,"   South African Journal of Economics, 75, no.3, September 2007.
      Other Frankel papers/presentations on South Africa.               ["Dutch Disease Returns to South Africa," Business Day, Oct.5, 2009.]
             


          "On the Tenge: Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy for Kazakhstan" Consultancy for government of Kazakhstan, CID, Apr.11, 2005.  Russian translation, ADB, 2009.

"Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies,"    in Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia: The Way Ahead, edited by Asian Development Bank, 2004 (Palgrave Macmillan Press, NY), vol. 2,  91-138.  Also RWP03-011; and NBER WP no.10032 .

"Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regimes," (with Sergio L. Schmukler and Luis Servén),  NBER WP no. 8828.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 23, no. 5, Sept. 2004, 701-734.
[After Argentina: "No Right Answer?"  The Economist Global Agenda, January 21, 2002.]
"Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime,"  with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén;  Brookings Trade Forum 2000, edited by S. Collins and D. Rodrik; Brookings Institution, Washington DC.

"No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times," Graham Lecture, Princeton University.   Essays in International Finance No. 215, Princeton University Press.   NBER Working Paper No. 7338,  1999.
        The Euro and other Currency Unions  

NEW “The Estimated Effects of the Euro on Trade:  Why are They Below Historical Evidence on Effects of Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?” in Europe and the Euro, edited by Alberto Alesina & Francesco Giavazzi (University of Chicago Press), 2009.    WCFIA WP 2009-008;   Dataset.   NBER WP 14542, Dec. 2008. RWP08-076, Harvard Kennedy School.   Slides, NBER conference, Oct. 2008.   Slides, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.

"Comments on 'The euro: It can’t happen, It’s a bad idea, It won’t last. U.S. economists on the EMU, 1989-2002, by Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea,'  slides. Euro at 10: Reflections on American Views, ASSA meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 3, 2009.

“Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.   RWP08-059, Harvard University. 

“Should Central European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for  Report on Poland's Full Membership in the 3rd Stage of the Economic and Monetary Union, October 2008, National Bank of Poland, Warsaw.      

["Emu's second 10 years may be tougher than its first," Martin Wolf,  Financial Times, May 28, p. 9.]
[ "Dollar chilled by rise of euro," The Guardian Weekly, 4/4/08, p. 43.]
["This crisis could bring the euro centre-stage," Wolfgang Münchau,  Financial Times,  March 23 2008.]

 "The Euro Could Surpass the Dollar Within 10 Years,"  Vox, March 18, 2008.                   HKS video.

 “Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar” (with Menzie Chinn),  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no. 1, 49-73.  Revised version of “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency." Page proofs.     RWP08-016  and  NBER WP 13909,  April 2008, .

"Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" (with Menzie Chinn).   In G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, edited by Richard Clarida (Univ.of Chicago Press, 2007).     
NBER conference, Newport, RI, June 1-2, 2005,  NBER WP 11510.    At AEI Sept.2005 .   
At Conference on Global Imbalances & Asian Financial Markets, UC Berkeley, Sept. 2005 [slides].  
Chinese translation forthcoming, International Finance, Taipei. 

[Interview on "International Currency Rankings," including video excerpt, Kennedy School Insight, May 2006.]

["Currency competition: How the dollar might lose its status as the world's main reserve currency,"   Economist, Sept. 29, 2005.]

["Euro may become top reserve currency by 2022 -- study,"  Reuters, Aug. 5, 2005.]

My comments on "The Euro's Trade Effects,"  March 2006, by Richard Baldwin . ECB WP 594, March 2006.  For What Effects is EMU Having on the Euro Area and its Member Countries?  European Central Bank, Frankfurt, June 2005. 

Comments on: "The Euro, Stabilization Policy, and the Stability and Growth Pact or Can Rubinomics work in the Eurozone?" by Adam S. Posen.  In The Euro at Five: Ready for a Global Role? edited by Adam Posen, 2005; pp. 157-169.   Conference at the Institute for International Economics.

"Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining EMU,"  in Euro Adoption in the Accession Countries – Opportunities and Challenges,  edited by Susan Schadler (IMF: Washington DC), 2005.   RWP04-039 .

"The Euro Area and World Interest Rates" with Menzie Chinn.  NY Fed conference on "Financial Globalization", 2004.   Summary in conference proceedings, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

"The UK Decision re EMU: Implications of Currency Blocs for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations," in Submissions on EMU from Leading Academics (H.M. Treasury: London), 2003, p.99-109. 

“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, October 30, 2002. 

"Comments on ‘Full Dollarization: The Case of Panama’ by Goldfajn and Olivares," LACEA, Rio de Janeiro, 2000; Economia Spring 2001, vol.1, no.2.

"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," with Andrew Rose. Quarterly Journal of Economics. May 2002. SUMMARY published in Currency Unions, edited by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, CA, 2001.  [Our data, some relevant op-ed and newspaper coverage, and a response to a comment by Dani Rodrik, are available at Andy Rose's website.] 
The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

"On the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000. 

   Proposal to Peg the Export Price (PEP)     

NEW “A Comparison of Monetary Anchor Options for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean,” Myths and Realities of Commodity Dependence: Policy Challenges and Opportunities for Latin America and the Caribbean, World Bank, Sept.18, 2009.  Slides.

"UAE & Other Gulf Countries Urged to Switch Currency Peg from the Dollar to a Basket That Includes Oil,"  Vox, , 9 July 2008.

“Peg the Export Price Index: A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Countries,”    Journal of Policy Modeling vol. 27, no. 4, June 2005.

Iraq’s Currency Solution? Tie the Dinar to Oil," The International Economy, Fall 2003.

A Proposal to Tie Iraq’s Currency to Oil published as "A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar," Financial Times, June 13, 2003.  

"A Proposed Monetary Regime for Small Commodity-Exporters: Peg the Export Price (‘PEP’)," KSG  RWP03-003, Harvard University.  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), vol. 6, no. 1, Spring 2003, 61-88.

"A Proposal to Anchor Monetary Policy by the Price of the Export Commodity"  (with Ayako Saiki), J. of Econ. Integration, Sept. 2002, vol.17, no.3, 417-48. 

"Should Gold-Exporters Peg Their Currencies to Gold?",  Research Study No. 29,  World Gold Council,  London, UK, 2002.      Tables and Charts

On Global Environmental Issues          
 

     The Kyoto Protocol and Design of a Possible Successor      
 

“Possible Impacts of Global Climate Change Policy on Mexico and other Developing Countries in Coming Years,” memo to Mexican President Felipe Calderón, Jan.2009.  Chapter 2.2 of The Mexico Competitiveness Report 2009, released in June at a workshop in Mexico City.

 “How to Make Climate Change Research Relevant to Washington policymakers,” Workshop on Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment, Energy Modeling Forum, Snowmass, Colorado, July 31-Aug 1, 2008, slides.

“Next Steps After the Kyoto Protocol:   Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets (summary),” Vox , June 2007.

1-page comment on Martin Wolf's column "In spite of sceptics, it is worth reducing climate change."  For FT Forum, FT.com, Feb. 7, 2007.

1-page comment on “Curbs on emissions will take a change of political climate.”   For FT Forum, FT.com, Nov. 8, 2006.

“Formulas for Quantitative Emission Targets,” Chapter 2 in   Architectures for Agreement: Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post Kyoto World, Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2007, p. 32-56.     KSG RWP07-011, Feb. 2007.    [Press release, March 2007: "After Kyoto, Then What?" Kennedy School professor outlines plan to confront challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions.]        Summary slides version, for New Directions in Regulatory Policy, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government Oct. 24, 2007.

Comments on Barrett, Nordhaus, Pizer, & Stavins, Kyoto and Beyond: Alternative Approaches to Global Warming, AEA meetings, Jan 6, 2006,  Boston.

"Designing a Regime of Emission Commitments for Developing Countries that is Cost-Effective and Equitable" (with Joseph Aldy), written for G20 Leaders and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations, Sept. 20-21, 2004.

"The Impact of a Revised Kyoto Protocol on Developing Countries," August 2004, written for Business and Economy, India.

"You're Getting Warmer:  The Most Feasible Path for Addressing Global Climate Change Does Run Through Kyoto," Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, 2001.  In Trade and Environment: Theory and Policy in the Context of EU Enlargement and Transition Economies, edited John Maxwell and Rafael Reuveny (Edward Elgar Publishers, Ltd., UK), 2005; pp. 37-55.

"The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol and Global Climate Change Policy," Kennedy School Forum, March 15, 2000.

"Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Policy Brief no. 52, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, June 1999.

     Trade and the Environment   

"Trade and the Environment," slides, Thinking Ahead on International Trade, Geneva, June 18, 2009. “Trade, Growth, & the Environment,” guest lecture slides in R.Stavins class in Environmental & Resource Economics & Policy, 2008 , April 2009. Press coverage:  "U.S. tariffs would chill climate pact and trade," Reuters, Nov. 24, 2009 "International Trade and the Environment: Ever the Twain Shall Meet?" Impact, HKS, Spring 2009 "Trade Offs: When Climate Policy Clashes With Trade  Polilcy," Wall Street Journal, Jan.30, 2009. “Study: Kyoto Protocol, Free Trade Compatible -- Harvard professor reconciles free trade and ecological responsibility,”  Harvard Crimson, Nov. 5, 2008. "Kyoto Protocol and World Trade Organization on a “collision course.”  HKS news,  Nov.3, 2008. “Environmental Effects of International Trade,” A Report for the Swedish Globalisation Council, Government of Sweden;  presented Jan.20, 2009, Stockholm. Proofs .                 RWP 09-006, Harvard KS, January 2009.     "The Global Climate Regime & the Global Trade Regime," slides;  for Regulatory Policy Program  Seminar, March 20, 2008. Harvard Univ.  [In HKS News.]

NEW  "Global Environment and Trade Policy," March 2009,  for the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements.    Proofs;  forthcoming in Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy, edited by Joe Aldy and Rob Stavins, Cambridge University Press, 2009;    Revised version of “Global Environmental Policy and Global Trade Policy,”   RWP08-058.  HPICA paper no.08-14.   Policy summary.          

NEW  “Addressing the Leakage/Competitiveness Issue In Climate Change Policy Proposals,” proofs  in Climate Change, Trade and Investment: Is a Collision Inevitable?  (Brookings Institution Press: Washington, DC), 2009, edited by Lael Brainard and Isaac Sorkin, p. 69-91.    2008 conference, Brookings.   WCFIA WP 4792, April 2009.

"Kyoto and Geneva: Linkage of the Climate Change Regime and the Trade Regime" a speech for Broadening Climate Discussion: The Linkage of Climate Change to Other Policy Areas, FEEM/MIT conference, Venice, Italy, June 2004.    RWP04-042.  Published as "Climate and Trade: Links Between the Kyoto Protocol and WTO,"  in Environment, vol. 47, no. 7, September 2005: 8-19.

"Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment?  Sorting out the Causality" with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, no. 1, 2005.  NBER WP 9201  NBER digest. Condensed version, RWP03-038.   [Data available (in Stata).]

"The Environment and Globalization" in Globalization: What's New edited by Michael Weinstein, Council on Foreign Relations (Columbia University Press: NY), 2005, pp. 129-169.   NBER WP 10090.  At Neemrana, India, Jan. 2003.  Reprinted in Economics of the Environment: Selected Readings, Fifth Edition, edited by R.Stavins (W.W.Norton: NY), 2005.

     Energy and the Environment

NEW "Energy and the Environment: Policy Advice for the New Administration:   The Matrix";  AEA/AERE meetings, San Francisco, Jan. 2009.

"Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost," Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity, EEI Chief Executives Conference, Palm Springs, 2000.

On Globalization and Trade        

"The World Trading System and Implications of External Opening"; written for a panel of Fundacio CIDOB forum, Barcelona, Spain, Sept. 24-25, 2004.  Forthcoming in The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, edited by Narcis Serra and Joseph Stiglitz (Oxford University Press), March 2008.  CFIA Discussion Paper 04-07.

 "The Flubbed Opportunity for the US to Exercise Global Economic Leadership"; The International Economy, XVIII, no. 2, Spring 2004.

"A Review of The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization by Jagdish Bhagwati," Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2001.

"Assessing the Efficiency Gains from Further Liberalization,"  Efficiency, Equity and Legitimacy: The Multilateral Trading System at the Millennium, in honor of Raymond Vernon. Edited by R.Porter, P.Sauve, A.Subramanian, and A.Zampetti,  Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C. 2001.  [Cited in Washington Post Editorial.]

"Globalization: Why and How It Should Continue," MacArthur Transnational Economic Security Workshop, MIT, 2000.

"Globalization of the Economy,"  Governance in a Globalizing World, edited by Joseph Nye and John Donahue (Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.), 2000.    Reprinted in International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, Robert Art and Robert Jervis, eds., Longman, 7^th ed., 2005.   And in International Political Economy, edited by Jeffry Frieden, David Lake and J. Lawrence Broz: (Norton: New York, Fifth edition), 2009.    NBER WP 7858.

The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002

On the US, Asia, and the Global Monetary System