UNPUBLISHED RESEARCH by Jeffrey
"Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger, HKS, 1st draft, June 2013.
"Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a 'Carry Trade' Model of Commodity Prices," May 2013. HKS RWP13-022, June 2013. Conference draft, conference at the IMF Research Department, Washington, D.C., March 2013. Video of session on forecasting commodity prices.
in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas
and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun,"
with Valentina Bosetti,
2011. NBER WP 17669,
Harvard Project on Climate Agreements
No.46; ; and
Working Paper 66,
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Sept.2011.
Background study for
Development Report 2011: Sustaining Equitable Progress,
United Nations Development Programme.
appendices, April 24; 1st
draft, March 28, 2011.
“Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, 2008. Hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.
"Are the Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Implicit in Options Prices Excessively Variable?" with Shang-Jin Wei, NBER WP 3910, 1991.
"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to Be Robust Under Model Uncertainty: Or Policy Cooperation Under Uncertainty: The Case for Some Disappointment," Economics Dept., UC Berkeley, 05-01-1991
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