"Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger, HKS, 1st draft, June 2013.   Slides "The Optimism Bias of Official Fiscal Forecasts in the Eurozone," Banca d'Italia, Rome, 20 June, 2013.

"Sustainable Cooperation in Global Climate Policy: Specific Formulas and Emission Targets to Build on Copenhagen and Cancun," with Valentina Bosetti, 2011.  NBER WP 17669,  Dec.2011 Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Discussion Paper No.46; ; and Working Paper 66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Sept.2011.    Background study for Human Development Report 2011: Sustaining Equitable Progress, United Nations Development Programme 3rd draft; appendices, April 24;  1st draft, March 28, 2011.

Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria, for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, 2008.  Hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.

"Are the Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Implicit in Options Prices Excessively Variable?" with Shang-Jin Wei, NBER WP  3910, 1991.

"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to Be Robust Under Model Uncertainty: Or Policy Cooperation Under Uncertainty: The Case for Some Disappointment," Economics Dept., UC Berkeley, 05-01-1991



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