NEW  "Does It Matter Whether Statistical Agencies Announce the Month’s Inflation or 12-month Inflation?" with Ayako Saiki, HKS, 2014.     PDF version.

NEW The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India,” with Pranjul Bhandari, Harvard Kennedy School, Aug. 2014.  CID WP No. 284, July 2014.

NEW   "Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?" with Jesse Schreger, revised, May 2014.   pdf, 1st draft, June 2013, HKS  + docx.   Slides "The Optimism Bias of Official Fiscal Forecasts in the Eurozone," Banca d'Italia, Rome, June 2013.

Should Eastern European Countries Join the Euro? A Review and Update of Trade Estimates and Consideration of Endogenous OCA Criteria,” for Dubrovnik Economic Conference XIV, 2008.  Hosted by Central Bank of Croatia.

"Are the Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Implicit in Options Prices Excessively Variable?" with Shang-Jin Wei, NBER WP  3910, 1991.

"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to Be Robust Under Model Uncertainty: Or Policy Cooperation Under Uncertainty: The Case for Some Disappointment," Economics Dept., UC Berkeley, 05-01-1991



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