Home               Articles by Jeffrey Frankel published in U.S. Journals

[Many of these journal articles are available on-line through JSTOR, an electronic archive subscription service commonly accessible through university libraries.  Journals named below that participate in JSTOR are linked to the corresponding location in the JSTOR site.  The JSTOR pages link to the publishers.  More recent articles can usually be obtained from the publisher, at your local library, or by request to the author.]   

NEW   "Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol.42, April 2014, pp. 88-112.    HKS RWP13-022, June 2013; HKS Summary.   Stata (data, do & log) files, June 2013 (excl. proprietary CE data). 

“On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” with Carlos Végh & Guillermo Vuletin, in  Journal of Development Economics, 100, no.1, Jan. 2013; pp. 32-47.   HKS RWP 12-011.  NBER WP 17619, 2011. Summarized in "Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Escape from Procyclicality," VoxEU, June 2011.

Are Leading Indicators Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability?  Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis,” with George Saravelos, in Journal of International Economics 87, no.2, July 2012, pp.216-31; online AppendixData files.    NBER WP 16047.   HKS RWP 11-024summary in HKS Impact, Autumn 2011.  Summary at VoxEU.

"Politically Feasible
Emission Target Formulas to Attain 460 ppm CO2 Concentrations," with Valentina Bosetti, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, vol.6, no.1, winter 2012: 86-109.  Full text; PDR reprint; Abstract.

A Comparison of Product Price Targeting and Other Monetary Anchor Options, for Commodity-Exporters in Latin America," Economia, vol.12, no.1 (Brookings Institution), Fall 2011 NBER WP 16362, 2010.   

A Lesson From the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries,”  Comparative Economic Studies, 53, no.3, Sept. 2011, 407-430.  To be reprinted in Changing Lenses: Global  Perspectives to Re-Develop America, edited by Joe Colombano & Aniket Shah (Palgrave Macmillan), end-2013.   HKS RWP11-014;  "Looking to Chile for Fiscal Sanity" 2011.    Short version, slides, India Planning Commission Workshop on Restoring Inclusive Growth,  NYU, 2010.  

“Estimation of De Facto Flexibility Parameter and Basket Weights in Evolving Exchange Rate Regimes,” with Daniel Xie, proofs, in American Economic Review 100, no.2, May 2010.  NBER WP 15620

"The Forward Market in Emerging Currencies: Less Biased than in Major Currencies," with Jumana Poonawala, proofs.  Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, April 2010, 29, no.3, 585-98.  Abstract. With appendices: HKS RWP09-023.   NBER WP 12496. 
Errata:  In Table 1, the numbers are wrong in the column testing t: b=1.  They should be (β-1)/(s.e.β).  E.g., the t-statistic should be 3.88 for Australia, 3.21 for Austria, etc.   Appendix 1 is available in NBER WP 12496 but not in the HKS RWP.

Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar,” with Menzie Chinn,  International Finance (Blackwill Publishers), 11, no.1, 2008, 49-73.  Revised version of “The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency,"  NBER WP 13909 .

"Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes:  Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights,"  IMF Staff Papers 2008, vol.55.   Replication files.   Complete version with all appendix tables: NBER WP 14016.  Or, with selection of appendix tables: Harvard KS RWP08-026.   Replication files  

"Does Openness to Trade Make Countries Less Vulnerable to Sudden Stops? Using Gravity to Establish Causality", with Eduardo Cavallo, Journal of International Money and Finance 27, no.8, December 2008, 1430-1452.  NBER WP 10957.   

"Responding to Crises," Cato Journal, vol. 27, no. 2, Spring/Summer, 2007.    KSG RWP07-010.

"Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," in IMF Staff Papers, 52, no.2., 2005.

"Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment?  Sorting out the Causality" with Andrew Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, no.1, February 2005.  NBER WP No. 9201  NBER digest.   [Data available (in Stata).]   Reprinted in Recent Papers in Trade and the Environment, edited by Brian Copeland (Edward Elgar Publishers: UK), 2014.

"Global Transmission of Interest Rates:  Monetary Independence and the Currency Regime," with Sergio Schmukler and Luis Servén,   Journal of International Money and Finance, 2004.  NBER WP 8828.  

"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," with Andrew Rose. Quarterly Journal of Economics. May 2002. SUMMARY published in Currency Unions, edited by Alberto Alesina and Robert Barro (Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, CA), 2001.  [Our data, some relevant op-ed and newspaper coverage, and a response to a comment by Dani Rodrik, are available at Andy Rose's website.] The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002 

"Verifying Exchange Rate Regimes" with Eduardo Fajnzylber, Sergio Schmukler, and Luis Serven.   Journal of Development Economics, vol. 66, no. 809, October 2001: 351-386.

"Does Trade Cause Growth?" with David Romer,  American Economic Review 89, no. 3, June 1999, 379-399. NBER WP No. 5476Reprinted in Trade and Growth, New World Order Series, vol. 20, H.Singer, N.Hatti and R.Tandon, eds., BR Publishing Corp.(India) Ltd., 2002To be reprinted also in Global Economic Institutions, Critical Writings on Global Institutions, edited by Prof. dr. W.T.M. Molle, Routledge, January 2008.
 The Frankel-Romer-Rose gravity-based instrumental variable for trade openness, as updated in Frankel-Rose, 2002  ◙

"Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs," with Shang-Jin Wei, IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 3, September 1998, 440-453.  NBER WP No. 5272.

"Country Fund Discounts and the Mexican Crisis of 1994: Did Mexican Residents Turn Pessimistic Before International Investors?" with Sergio Schmukler.  Condensed version of CIDER Working Paper No. C96-067 Open Economies Review 7, Fall 1996, 511-534. Reprinted in Currency Crashes: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses, edited by George Tavlas, Kluwer, 1997, 81-104.

"Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment," with Andrew Rose, Journal of International Economics 41, no. 3/4, 351-366, 1996.   International Finance Discussion Papers No. 534, Federal Reserve Board.

"Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform," American Economic Review 86, no.2, May 1996, 153-158.

"Regional Trading Arrangements: Natural or Super-Natural?" with E. Stein and S.J. Wei, American Economic Review 86, no.2, May 1996, 52-56. NBER WP 5431.

"A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean-Reversion Within and Between Countries," with Andrew Rose, Journal of International Economics 40, no.1-2, February 1996, 209-224. NBER WP 5006.

"Can Regional Blocs Be Stepping Stones to Global Free Trade?" with Shang-Jin Wei, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 5 no. 4, November 1995, 339-347.

"Who Drives Real Interest Rates in the Pacific Rim: The United States or Japan?" with Menzie Chinn, Journal of International Money and Finance 14, no. 6, December 1995, 801-821.

"Economic Regionalism:  Evidence from Two 20th Century Episodes," with Barry Eichengreen, North American Journal of Economic and Finance 6, no. 2, Fall 1995, 89-106.  Reprinted in Hedging Bets on Growth in a Globalizing Industrial Order:  Lessons for the Asian NIEs, edited by Lee-Jay Cho and Yoon Hyung Kim (Korea Development Institute Press, 1998), 89-119.

"Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-Natural" (with E. Stein and S.J.Wei),  Journal of Development Economics 47, no. 1, June 1995, 61-95.   Full version, CIDER Working Paper No. C94-034.

"The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27, no. 2, May 1995, 318-334.

"The Constrained Asset Share Estimation (CASE) Method: Testing Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," with C.Engel, K.Froot, and A.Rodrigues, Journal of Empirical Finance 2, 1995, 3-18.

"An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along its Entire Length," with Cara Lown, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109, no.2, May 1994, 517-530.

"A 'Greater China' Trade Bloc?" with Shang-Jin Wei, China Economic Review 5, no.2, Fall 1994, 179-190.

"Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for 25 Currencies," with Menzie Chinn, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 26, no. 24, November 1994, 759-770.  Revised version of "Are Exchange Rate Expectations Biased?:  Tests for a Cross- Section of 25 Currencies,"  NBER WP 3807.  To be reprinted in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by L. Sarno and M. Taylor, Edward Elgar Publishing.

"Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," with Kathryn Dominguez, American Economic Review 83, no. 5, December 1993, 1356-69.  Abridged version of CIDER WP C92-001, U.C.Berkeley.  To be reprinted in Foreign Exchange Intervention: Objectives and Effectiveness, edited by Sylvester Eijffinger, Edward Elgar Publishing, 1999.  

"Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross-Section of 17 Currencies," with Menzie Chinn, Review of International Economics 1, no.2 (June 1993), 136-144.

"A Note on Internationally Coordinated Policy Packages Intended to be Robust Under Model Uncertainty," with S.Erwin and K.Rockett, American Economic Review, 82, no.4 (September 1992), 1052-56.

"Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review," American Economic Review 82, no.2 (May 1992), 197-202.  To be reprinted in International Financial Integration, edited by Sylvester Eijffinger and Jan Lemmen, Edward Elgar Publishing.

"Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," with Ken Froot, American Economic Review 80, no.2 (May 1990), 181-85.  To be reprinted in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by Mark Taylor and Liam Gallagher; and in New Developments in Exchange Rate Economics, edited by Luico Sarno and Mark Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers, UK.

"Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?" with Ken Froot, Quarterly Journal of Economics 104, no.1 (February 1989), 139-161. Reprinted in Advances in Behavioral Finance, R.Thaler, ed., Russell Sage Foundation, New York, 1993, 359-381.  To be reprinted also in Speculation and Financial Markets, edited by Mark Taylor and Liam Gallagher, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishers, UK.

"Flexible Exchange Rates: Experience versus Theory," Journal of Portfolio Management 15, no.2 (Winter 1989), 45-54.

"International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policy-Makers Do Not Agree On the Model," with Katharine Rockett, American Economic Review 78, no. 3 (June 1988), 318-340. Also translated into Spanish in Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, Hacienda Publica Espanola: Madrid.

"Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, 7 (March 1988), 115-125.

"Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," with Ken Froot, American Economic Review 77, no. 1 (March 1987), 133-153. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, vol. II, edited by R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, U.K., 1992.

"International Capital Mobility in Developing Countries vs. Industrialized Countries: What Do Saving-Investment Correlations Tell Us?" with Michael Dooley and Don Mathieson,  IMF Staff Papers, 34, no. 3 (September 1987), 503-530.  To be reprinted in International Financial Integration, edited by S. Eijffinger and Jan Lemmen, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics,  Edward Elgar Publishing, UK.

"Regression vs. Volatility Tests of the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets" (with James Stock), Journal of International Money and Finance 6, no. 1 (March 1987), 49-56.

"Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics:  The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 68, no. 2 (May 1986), 344-348.

"The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics," Journal of International Money and Finance, 5 (March 1986), S53-75.

"The Dazzling Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (1985), 199-217.

"Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility," with Gikas Hardouvelis, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17, no. 4 (November 1985, Part I), 427-438.

"Portfolio Crowding Out Empirically Estimated," Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (1985), 1041-1065.

"Portfolio Shares as `Beta-Breakers': A Test of CAPM," Journal of Portfolio Management 11, no. 4 (Summer 1985), 18-23.

"Commodity Prices and Money:  Lessons from International Finance,"   American Journal of Agricultural Economics 66, no. 5 (December 1984), 560-566.

"Do Asset Demand Functions Optimize Over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six Currency Test," with Charles Engel, Journal of International Economics 17 (December 1984), 309-323.

"The Theory of Trade in Middle Products: Extension," American Economic Review (June 1984).

"Why Interest Rates React to Money Announcements: An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market," with Charles Engel, Journal of Monetary Economics 13, no. 1 (January 1984).

"The Effect of Excessively-Elastic Expectations on Exchange Rate Volatility in the Dornbusch Overshooting Model," Journal of International Money and Finance 2, no. 1 (1983).

"In Search of the Exchange Risk Premium: A Six-Currency Test Assuming Mean-Variance Optimization," Journal of International Money and Finance 1 (December 1982), 255-274. Reprinted in Exchange Rate Economics, Vol.II, edited by R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, Hants, U.K., 1992.

"A Test of Perfect Substitutability in the Foreign Exchange Market," Southern Economic Journal October 1982, vol. 48..

"The Mystery of the Multiplying Marks: A Modification of the Monetary Model:" Review of Economics and Statistics, LXIV, 3 (August 1982).

"The 1807-1809 Embargo Against Great Britain," Journal of Economic History, XLII, no. 2 (June 1982).

"A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure," Review of Economics and Statistics 64, no. 1 (February 1982), 135-142.

"On The Mark: Reply," American Economic Review 71, no. 5 (December 1981).

"Tests of Rational Expectations in the Forward Exchange Market," Southern Economic Journal  46, no. 4 (April 1980).

"On The Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review 69, no. 4 (September 1979), 601-622. Translated to Italian in Flexible Exchange Rates: Theory and Experience, F. Giavazzi and R. Cohen, editors; Etas Libri: Sonzongo (1982). Reprinted also in Exchange Rate Economics, Vol.I, edited by R.MacDonald and M.Taylor, International Library of Critical Writings in Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, U.K., 1992.

"The Diversifiability of Exchange Risk," Journal of International Economics 9 (August 1979), 379-393.

"The Bluejeans Effect," The American Economist, 19:60 (Spring 1976).  Reprinted in Readings for Principles of Economics, J. Crawford, editor.  W.B. Saunders Company: Philadelphia.

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