Op-eds and SPEECHES, by Jeffrey Frankel
Failure and Political Failure,"
Project Syndicate, Feb.11, 2014. Full version,
Rise and Fall of Cap-and-Trade,"
Feb. 18, 2014.
"The Optimism Bias of Official Fiscal
Forecasts in the Eurozone,"
Banca d'Italia seminar, Rome, 20 June, 2013.
"Fischer, the Fed & US Growth," Project
Stanley Fischer is a Great Choice,” The Guardian, Dec.27.
Extended in "Stan
Fischer, The Fed, & Sub-par US Economic Growth."
"Betting on the Tortoise in Japan," Project Syndicate, Sept.12. Extended version,"Japan's consumption tax: Take it slow & steady," Sept. 16, 2013.
"How Many European Recessions? " Project Syndicate, July 17. E.g., UK Double-Dip Recession Revised Away, The Guardian, UK, 7/19. Or The Korea Herald 7/21. Extended version: "One Recession or Many? Double-Dip Downturns in Europe," July 22.
"The Economists' Stone," Project Syndicate, March 13, 2013. Full version "Monetary Alchemy, Fiscal Science," Jan.26, 2013.
"The Battle of the Bond Benchmarks," Project Syndicate, Feb.11. Extended version: "Should Bond Benchmarks Shift from Traditional to GDP Weights?" Feb.15, 2013.
"Four Magic Tricks for Fiscal Conservatives," Project Syndicate, Oct. 22, 2012.
"Flock of Black Swans," Project Syndicate. Aug.20. Part I: Black Swans of August. Part II: More Black Swans, Aug. 23.
“Budgetary Wishful Thinking,” Project Syndicate, April 12, 2012; including Korea Herald 4/16/12.
"Did Obama Turn Around the Economy?" Project Syndicate, Feb.20, 2012; incl. Korea Herald 2/23/12. "Will Emerging Markets Fall in 2012?" Project Syndicate Jan.20, 2012; including “Cycle of crisis looms over emerging markets,” Bangkok Post, 1/26/12. Reprinted, Business & Management Journal 2, no.2, Jan.2012, pp.119.
“Who Should Lead the IMF?” Project Syndicate, May 27, 2011, incl. FT Deutschland, Il Sole 24 Ore, China Daily.
"Panel on the Euro Crisis,"
Center for European Studies, Harvard, Feb. 13, 2014.
Red States, Blue States,"
Oct. 4, 2012.
Leaders' Eyes on the Prize,"
Korea Herald, Oct.21
Full version: "The
Ibrahim Prize for Excellence among African Leaders,"
Africa Policy Journal, April
of session on forecasting commodity prices,
the IMF Research Department,
March 21, 2013.
Global Economic Environment for Emerging Markets," Medellin,
Colombia, May 3, 2012. Appendix slides.
Currency Issues," MPA/ID program, Nov. 2012."The
Rise of the RMB as an International Currency: Learning from Historical
Precedents," JP Morgan Asia-Pacific Equity Conference,
Sept. 6, 2012.
May Be Slow, But at Least It's a Recovery,"
slides, Harvard. Oct.2010.
Addressing the Natural Resource Curse,
Keynote address, High
IMF Institute &
Algeria, Algiers, Nov.4., 2010
"Making Inflation Targeting Appropriately Flexible" & "On the Rand," South African
Treasury, Pretoria, Jan.16, 2007. Slides.
"Prospects for Monetary Integration in Southern Africa," slides Stellenbosch University, Jan.18, 2007.
"Implicit Volatilities in Options Prices are Too Low," TransNational Research, London, Jan. 12, 2007.
Frankel and Amartya Sen debate in the Forum "Is the Language of Rights
Useful in the Fight Against Poverty?"
"Falling Dollar," Martin Wolf's Financial Times column, and JF comments thereon, Economists' Forum, FT.com, Dec. 6, 2006.
“What Do Economists Mean by Globalization? Implications for Inflation and Monetary Policy,”for Academic Consultants Meeting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Sept.28, 2006. Slides with graphs. Forthcoming in Economic Integration - Global Experience, Icfai Unive. Press (Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts of India) Hyderbad; 2007.
on "International Currency Rankings," including video excerpt
Kennedy School Insight, May 2006.
"The Economic Outlook and the Twin Deficits," Boston Economic Club, May 24, 2006. Earlier versions were presented at The Columbus Group, Harvard University, Feb. 17, 2006; an Ambrosetti meeting, Villa d’Este, Italy, March 31; and the Economic Advisory Panel Meeting of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, April 7, 2006; and the Real Estate Academic Initiative, at Harvard University, April 19, 2006.
“How disruptive would $80-$100 oil be to the US and global economies?” April 2006, question for The International Economy.
rising US interest rates precipitate the next wave of emerging market
International Economy, Winter 2005.
“On the Renminbi,” CESifo Forum, vol 6, no. 3, Autumn 2005, p. 16-21 Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich.
“As a Budget Storm Gathers, Bush Ignores Fiscal Forecast ,” The Forward, Sept. 16-22, 2005. Translated into Japanese in SAPIO magazine, Tokyo.
[China's Announcement of de-linking from RMB to the $ -- Segment on On Point radio show July 21, 2005]
"Pro-Trade Arguments in Answer to the Contrarians," July 11, 2005. Financial Times.
"What's Ahead: Decade of the Dollar, the
Euro, or the RMB?" Eurobank, Athens, Greece, 21 June, 2005.
"What Can An Economic Adviser Do When the President Adopts Bad Economic Policies?" The Pierson Lecture, Swarthmore College, Apr. 21, 2005. . Incl. tribute to Bernie Saffran.
Why Are Oil and Metal Prices High? Don’t Forget Low Interest Rates, published as “Real Interest Rates Cast a Shadow Over Oil,” Financial Times, 4/15/05.
"The Wrong Approach," Jeffrey Frankel and Jessica Stern, The Baltimore Sun, October 29, 2004. Pg. 17A.
"A Debate on the Deficit," Challenge, November 2004, pp. 12-45. Reprinted in The Means to Prosperity: Fiscal Policy Reconsidered, edited by Per Gunnar Berglund and Matias Vernengo (Routledge, 2005)
"The World Trading System and Implications of External Opening" written for "From the Washington Consensus Towards a New Global Governance," Fundacio CIDOB, Barcelona, Spain, held Sept. 24-25, 2004.
"Designing a Regime of Emission Commitments for Developing Countries that is Cost-Effective and Equitable" (with Joseph Aldy), written for G20 Leaders and Climate Change, Council on Foreign Relations, Sept. 20-21, 2004.
"Kyoto and Geneva: Linkage of the Climate Change Regime and the Trade Regime" a speech for Broadening Climate Discussion: The Linkage of Climate Change to Other Policy Areas, FEEM/MIT conference, Venice, Italy, June 2004. KSG RWP04-042.
"Twin Deficits and Twin Decades," a speech written for the conference on the Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy, held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at Wequassett, June 14-16, 2004.
Renminbi: The choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate
and adjustment under a flexible rate," written
for a High-Level Seminar on Foreign Exchange System, Dalian, China, May 26-27, 2004.
Presentation at American Enterprise Institute, Washington DC, Jan. 10, 2005
"Ten Defenses for Irresponsible Tax Cuts, and Why They are Wrong," panel on The Budget Deficit and the American Economy: How Much Does the Deficit Matter? What Should Be Done? with Richard Darman, Glenn Hubbard, and Alice Rivlin, Kennedy School of Government, April 30, 2004.
A Proposal to Tie Iraq’s Currency to Oil published as "A Crude Peg for the Iraqi Dinar," June 13, 2003, Financial Times.
When An Economic Adviser Disagrees with the President, Financial Times, March 31, 2003 (.pdf version)
"Deficits and Decades: Lessons from US Economic Policy in the 1990s," speech at ICRIER, New Delhi, India, Jan. 15, 2003.
“Currency Blocs and Market Integration: Implications for Trade and Business Cycle Correlations,” A background report for the Commission on The UK Outside the Euro, October 30, 2002.
"Trading Places", September 13, 2002, Financial Times.
"EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective," Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000. (In Italian)
"US Economic Performance, and Implications for Mexico," delivered at State of the Government, First National Meeting of Legislators of the National Action Party (PAN), Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, August 23, 2001.
"Economic Advantages of America," Europa und USA im Spannungsfled vonWirtschaft und Politik, Schloss Schönbrunn, Vienna, 16 May 2001; and Dublin Castle, Dublin, Ireland, 7 June 2001.
Lecture at IMF Institute, August 7, 2000; as reported in IMF Survey, vol. 29, no.17, August 28, 2000.
"Globalization: Why and How It Should Continue," presented at the MacArthur Transnational Economic Security Workshop, MIT, May 2000.
"EMU and the Euro: An American Perspective," for EMU Watch Series, DB Research, presented at Deutsche Bank, Frankfurt, June 21, 2000; and the Lucchini Foundation, Brescia, June 22, 2000. (In Italian)
"The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol and Global Climate Change Policy," Kennedy School Forum, Harvard University, March 15, 2000.
"Critiques of the IMF," for a debate with Jeff Sachs --The IMF: Are 50 Years Enough? moderated by Joe Nye, KSG, Harvard University, April 20, 2000.
"Achieving Environmental Goals at Minimum Economic Cost,"Edison Electric Institute Advisory Panel on Fuel Diversity, EEI Chief Executives Conference, Palm Springs, CA, Jan. 13, 2000
"On Reports that Someone in Washington Has Mislaid Russia," Dean's community-wide discussion on The Future of Russia, December 13, 1999, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Published in The Russian Weekly; Delovoi, Russia; Lietevos Aidas, Lithuania; Logos Press, Moldova; Aki Press, Kyrgystan; and Siue, Slovakia; Fall 2000.
"The Outlook for the US Trade Balance," Academic Consultants Meeting, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Nov. 29, 1999.
"U.S. Economic Performance and Lessons for Other Countries," Weatherhead Fellows Conference, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Nov. 20, 1999; revised for meeting with members of Japanese Diet, Center for Business and Government, November 16, 2000.
"Lessons Learned from the Korean Crisis," Conference on The Korean Crisis, Center for International Development, Harvard University, Nov. 19, 1999.
"Asia: Opportunity or Obstruction," conference on Global Economics and Global Security: The Balance in the New Millennium, KSG, Sept. 23, 1999.
"Is the US Interested in Exercising Dollar Diplomacy?" (abridged), address to Conference on Dollarization, InterAmerican Development Bank, Panama City, Panama, July 1999.
"No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries," testimony before the House Committee on Banking and Financial Services, May 21, 1999.
"Dollarization in Latin America: Solution or Straitjacket?" remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington DC, April 6, 1999, and International Monetary Fund, June 24, 1999.
“The Kyoto Agreement on Global Climate Change: The Administration Economic Analysis,” Luncheon Remarks to the NBER Conference on Tax Policy and the Economy, Hotel Washington, October 20, 1998. Appendix: Tables and Charts of Effects on Energy Prices.
"Curbing Carbon Emissions and the Kyoto Protocol: Perspective from the Administration," Washington Policy Seminar, Macroeconomic Advisers, Georgetown Conference Center, September 10, 1998, and the International Monetary Fund, June 24, 1999.
"Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol," After Kyoto: Are There Rational Pathways to a Sustainable Global Energy System?, 1998 Aspen Energy Forum, Aspen, Colorado, July 6, 1998. Appendix: Tables and Charts of Effects on Energy Prices.
"The Kyoto Agreement on Mitigating Global Climate Change: Gains to All from Participation by Developing Countries," Keynote speech, Executive Program on Climate Change and Development, Harvard Institute for International Development, Harvard University, July 17, 1998.
"Regional Trading Arrangements: Barriers or Stepping Stones for Global Free Trade," Agenda for the Twenty-first Century, World Bank, July 9, 1998.
"Trade Blocs: Barriers or Stepping Stones for Global Trade and Investment," Keynote Speech before the International Federation of Associations of Business Economists (IFABE), Vancouver, Canada, November 19, 1997.
"Fast-track and the Continuing Importance of Trade Liberalization," Symposium on Freer Trade: In Whose Interest?, The Carter Center, Atlanta, Georgia, October 20, 1997.
"How to Gauge the Importance of Trade to the U.S. Economy," address to the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., Oct. 7, 1997.
"How to Gauge the Importance of Trade to the U.S. Economy," address to Conference of Business Economists, Washington, DC, May 8, 1997.
"The Second Clinton Administration's Policies Toward Korea and East Asia," Address to the Korea-US Twenty-First Century Council, Washington, D.C., May 1, 1997.
"Statement before the Senate Banking Committee" and hearing, as Nominee for Member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, US Senate, Washington, DC, March 6, 1997. US Government Printing Office.
"The Dollar's Demise? Future of the Dollar as the World's Principal Reserve Asset," H.W.Brock, editor, Strategic Economic Decisions, Inc., Menlo Park, Ca., August 1997.
"Sustainability of Currency Arrangements and Causes
of Major Devaluations in Eight Latin American and Southeast Asian Countries," JETRO
New York, June 1995.
"Trade Bind: Now It's Harder to Fix a Recession," with Barry Eichengreen, New York Times oped, August 14, 1988.
"Tax Policy, Trade Policy and American Competitiveness," in From the Southwest to the World, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, July 1989. Speech, Dallas, October 1988. Also abridged & translated into Japanese in Economist, The Mainichi Newspapers, Dec.20, 1988, 51-5.