Defining and measuring vulnerability
Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty: A Proposed Measure, Applied to Indonesia (with Asep Suryahadi, Sudarno Sumarto). This paper defines "vulnerability" generally as the risk of an adverse outcome (which the result of exposure to shocks, preventative measures and coping resonses). Vulnerability to absolute consumption expenditure poverty is the risk of an episode of poverty over some defined horizon (say, 3 years). A household is defined to be vulnerable to poverty is they have a risk greater than some threshold (say 50 percent). We use panel data from Indonesia to show that there is enormous movement in and out of poverty and even if the headcount ACE poverty is only 20 percent up to 50 percent of households are vulnerable to poverty.