CASPIAN REGION

Security Is About Diversity

Brenda Shaffer, Research Director, Caspian Studies Program

The September 11 events further weakened an already plummeting world economy. What was the response of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC leaders? The cartel declared a slash in oil production in an attempt to maintain high oil prices, refusing to help forestall an emerging world crisis. Despite OPEC’s action, oil prices tumbled in mid-November and hope emerged for economic stabilization. OPEC persevered and attempted to sway important non-OPEC members of the cartel, Russia and Norway, to cut oil production in order to preserve high prices.

OPEC’s behavior in this latest crisis illustrates the importance of fostering alternative energy resources and diversity of oil supply sources outside the grasp of the cartel. The key to energy security is not in attaining large volumes of oil, but in ensuring supply from a variety of locations that do not act as a monopoly. The emergence of diverse oil sources not only contributes to world energy security, but also lessens the ability of the main producers to use oil pricing as a tool to dictate their political agendas. The lukewarm support of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states for the U.S. antiterror operation underscores how divergent their political program may be from that of the United States.

Oil and gas from the Caspian region can play an important role in promoting world energy security. Most of the Caspian oil resources, about 20 billion barrels, are located in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, countries that possess strong pro-American orientations. Exploration is continuing, and proven reserves are expected to rise significantly.

In order to contribute to world energy security, the previous and current U.S. administrations have pressed for the construction of an oil pipeline on an east-west route — known, by its coordinates, as “Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.” This pipeline would bypass Iran and Russia, and ensure a major oil source far from OPEC tentacles. U.S. administrations have demanded that this route prove its commercial viability beyond its contribution to diversity of world energy sources. British Petroleum has now thrown its weight behind the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan plan, reflecting the project’s commercial value.

The United States should invest in strong ties with the states of the Caspian region, especially Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. It is ironic that Washington is hypercritical of the state of democratization in these states, despite the progress they have made over the last decade, while the United States has few reservations about selling arms to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and maintaining close security relations with them. Significant progress strengthening democracy and rule of law in the Caspian states does need to be made. However, the human rights situation in these countries is a liberal dream compared with Saudi Arabia and the neighboring Gulf states, which do not even pay lip service to democracy.

The United States should devote special attention to developing relations with the Muslim states of Central Asia and the Caucasus. Beyond recognizing their important potential contribution to world energy security and the role that they are playing in the current U.S. security posture, it is vital that the United States strengthen its ties with the states in the Muslim world that maintain separation of religion and state and aspire to close political and cultural ties to the United States.

The United States would do well to court the friendly Muslim countries in the Caspian region. The payoff would be significant — not only could it result in lower oil prices and less dependence on Saudi Arabia and its OPEC cronies, but also the United States could show that it is fighting a specific and limited threat, and not the Muslim world.

Brenda Shaffer recently gave congressional testimony on U.S. interests and policy in the Caspian region. See http://ksgnotes1.harvard.edu/BCSIA/SDI.nsf/web/Caspian.