Next in Line…

In The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s Only Superpower Can’t Go It Alone, Joseph S. Nye, Jr., finds it unlikely that America’s pre-eminence will decline before the end of this century, but states there’s much speculation regarding countries with the potential to attain superpower status. Here’s a rundown of potential superpowers, with a summary of the opinions for and against each one:

CHINA

Strengths
• Most populous country
• Vast geographical scale
• Its ambitions for world domination are similar to those of pre-World War I Germany’s, putting it on a direct collision course with the United States

Weaknesses
• Despite a high annual growth rate, its economy has a long way to go to catch up
• Internal obstacles include an inadequate infrastructure and shaky financial system
• Weakness of its political system equals inefficient conversion of economic resources into military capacity
• Communist ideology has low “soft power” appeal

JAPAN

Strengths
• World’s second-largest national economy
• Highly skilled population
• Stable society
• Strong technological leadership
• Could form a potent coalition with China

Weaknesses
• Will never have the geographical or population scale of the United States
• Ethnocentric attitudes and policies undercut its “soft power”
• An alliance with China is unlikely unless the United States makes a serious military or political blunder

RUSSIA

Strengths
• Enormous geographical scale
• Vast natural resources
• Educated population
• Skilled scientists and engineers
• Enough missiles and nuclear warheads to destroy the United States
• Could form an alliance with China or India

Weaknesses
• Political system remains fragile
• Lacks institutions for an effective market economy
• Inefficient public health system
• Economy lags far behind the United States
• Russia’s concern about the rise of Chinese power makes an alliance unlikely

INDIA

Strengths
• Economy is growing steadily
• Information industries are gaining prominence
• Military power includes nuclear weapons and 1.2 million personnel
• History of democratic values equals strong “soft power”
• Could form an alliance with Russia and China

Weaknesses
• Hundreds of millions still live in poverty
• Widening gulf between have and have-not regions could equal domestic strife
• Economy lags far behind the United States
• Rivalry with China makes an alliance unlikely

EUROPE

Strengths
• Size of EU economy is roughly equal to the United States economy
• European culture has wide “soft power” appeal
• Share of world exports exceeds that of the United States
• EU geographical area would increase if Central European states were included

Weaknesses
• National identities remain stronger than a common European identity, limiting unity
• Integration of EU foreign and domestic policy remains contentious
• Shared values of democracy and human rights connect the United States with Europe more strongly than with any other region of the world