Populism and Natural Resources
An Energy Policy Research Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Thursday and Friday, November 1-2, 2007
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street
(adjacent to Kennedy School Taubman Building)
1:55 pm Welcoming remarks
William Hogan and Federico Sturzenegger, KSG, Harvard University
2:00-3:00 pm “A Resource Belief-Curse: Oil and Individualism”
Rafael Di Tella, Harvard Business School, Harvard University
Robert MacCulloch, Imperial College
Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo
Discussant: George Marios Angeletos, MIT
3:00-4:00 pm “Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and
Expropriation?”
Mark Wright, Department of Economics, UCLA
Mike Tomz, Department of Political Science, Stanford University
Discussant: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, International Monetary Fund
4:00-4:15 pm Coffee Break
4:15-5:15 pm “Contracts in Natural Resources”
Philippe Aghion, Department of Economics, Harvard University
Discussant: Lawrence Summers, KSG, Harvard
5:15-6:15 pm “The Political Economy of Oil Contract Renegotiation in Venezuela”
Osmel Manzano, Inter-American Development Bank
Francisco Monaldi, IESA, Caracas
Discussant: Ramon Espinasa, Consultant IDB and former Chief Economist, PDVSA
7:00 pm Reception: Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street
7:30 pm Speakers Dinner: Harvard Faculty Club
Friday, November 2, 2007
Kennedy Room, Charles Pavilion, One Eliot Street
8:30 am Breakfast
9:00-10:00 am “Credibility, Commitment, and Regulation”
Dieter Helm, Oxford University, Oxford
Discussant: Jeffrey Frankel, KSG, Harvard University
10:00–11:00 am “Hydrocarbons Policy, Shocks and Collective Imagination: What Went Wrong in Bolivia?”
Fernando Navajas, Fundación de Investigaciones Económicas Latinoamericanas, Buenos Aires
Discussant: Fernando Candia, Managing Director of EFECE and,former Finance Minister and Central Bank President of Bolivia
11:00-11:15 am Coffee Break
11:15 am-12:15 pm “Urgency and Betrayal: Three Attempts to Foster Private Investment
in the Argentinean Oil Industry”
Nicolas Gadano, CIPPEC, Buenos Aires
Discussant: Louis Wells, Harvard Business School, Harvard University
12.15-1:00 pm Lunch
1:00-2:00 pm “Pricing Expropriation Risk in Natural Resource Contracts: A Real Options
Approach”
Eduardo Schwartz, Anderson School of Management, UCLA
Anders Trolle, Copenhagen Business School, Copenhagen
Discussant: Robert Pindyck, MIT
2:00-3:00 pm “Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation”
Eduardo Engel, Department of Economics, Yale University; and
Ronald Fischer, Department Ingenieria Industrial,
Universidad de Chile, Santiago.
Discussant: Richard Zeckhauser and Nils Wernerfelt, KSG, Harvard University
3:00-4:00 pm “Dealing with Expropriations: General Guidelines for
Oil Production Contracts”
Roberto Rigobon, Sloan School of Business, MIT
Discussant: Erich Muehlegger, KSG, Harvard University
4:00-4.20PM Wrap-up
Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani, Mondoil Corporation