Consortium for Energy Policy Research at Harvard

Preface
            William Hogan (Harvard Kennedy School)

Chapter 1.  Contracts and investment in natural resources
            William Hogan (Harvard Kennedy School)
            Federico Sturzenegger (Harvard Kennedy School)
            Laurence Tai (Harvard University)

Theoretical Papers

Chapter 2.  Petroleum Contracts: What Does Contract Theory Tell Us?
            Philippe Aghion (Harvard University)
            Lucía Quesada (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

Commentary
            Lawrence Summers (Harvard Kennedy School)

Chapter 3.  Sovereign Theft: Theory and Evidence about Sovereign Default and Expropriation
            Michael Tomz (Stanford University)
            Mark L. J. Wright (University of California, Los Angeles)

Commentary: Expropriations, Defaults, and Financial Architecture
            Jeromin Zettelmeyer (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)

Chapter 4.  A Resource Belief-Curse? Oil and Individualism
            Rafael Di Tella (Harvard Business School),
            Juan Dubra (Universidad de Montevideo)
            Robert MacCulloch (Imperial College)

Commentary
            George Marios Angeletos (MIT)

Chapter 5.  Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation
            Eduardo Engel (Yale University and NBER) and
            Ronald Fischer (University of Chile)
           
Chapter 6. Denying the Temptation to GRAB
            Richard Zeckhauser (Harvard Kennedy School)
            Nils Wernerfelt (Harvard University)

Chapter 7.  Dealing with Expropriations: General Guidelines for Oil Production Contracts
            Roberto Rigobon (Sloan School of Management, MIT and NBER)

Commentary
            Erich Muehlegger (Harvard Kennedy School)

Chapter 8.  Pricing expropriation risk in natural resource contracts – A real options approach
            Eduardo S. Schwartz (UCLA Anderson School of Management and NBER)
            Anders B. Trolle (Copenhagen Business School)
     
Commentary
            Robert Pindyck (MIT)

Country Cases

Chapter 9.  Credibility, commitment and regulation: Ex Ante Price Caps and Ex Post Interventions
            Dieter Helm (University of Oxford)
     
Commentary
            Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard Kennedy School)
                                   
Chapter 10.  Hydrocarbons Policy, Shocks and Collective Imagination: What Went Wrong in Bolivia?
            Fernando Navajas (FIEL and University of La Plata, Argentina)

Commentary
            Fernando Candia Castillo (EFECE; former Finance Minister and Central Bank President of Bolivia)

Chapter 11.  Urgency And Betrayal: Three Attempts to Foster Private Investment in Argentina’s Oil Industry
            Nicolás Gadano (Center for the Implementation of Public Policies Promoting Equity and Growth (CIPPEC))
     
Commentary
            Louis Wells (Harvard Business School)

Chapter 12.  The Political Economy of Oil Contract Renegotiation in Venezuela
            Osmel Manzano (Inter-American Development Bank, IESA, and UCAB)
            Francisco Monaldi (Stanford University, IESA, and UCAB)
     
Commentary
            Ramón Espinasa (IDB; former Chief Economist, PDVSA)

Conclusion

Epilogue.  Harvard Populism Conference
            Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani (Mondoil Corporation)
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