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David King on the New Generation of Voters

The youth vote may play a critical role in the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, November 7. A new national survey commissioned by Harvard's Institute of Politics (IOP) finds that nearly a third of 18-to-24 year olds 'definitely' plan to vote, one of the highest percentages in recent decades. David King is the associate director of the IOP and studies Congress, political parties and elections.

Q: This year's poll contrasts the opinions of 18-to-24 year olds who are in college with those who are not. What are the most significant differences that you found?

King: We actually expected to find fairly significant, substantial differences between those who are in college and those who aren't. And in terms of partisanship: not so much at all. Folks in college are slightly more likely to be Democrats than those who aren't in college, but the modal response is that these young people are independents. They don't feel particularly favorable to either political party. Both those who are in college and those who aren't agree [that] the number one issue in the world right now is the war. In their world, 33 percent say either 'the war in Iraq' or 'the war' is the number one issue. The number two issue is immigration policy and that comes in well under 5 percent. So both groups are animated about the war.

When we asked young people to grade the president on seven issue dimensions, such as the war on terror, or health care policy, the environment-the average grade was C minus, and it didn't matter whether you were in college or not in college.

Those who are not in college were slightly more likely to give the president lower grades overall and more likely to grade the president lower on education policy. But, again, the differences are not nearly as interesting as the similarities. America's young people today are unified in a way we haven't seen in past surveys-unified in opposition to the war, and also, unified in not knowing which party they ought to turn to.

Q: Midterm election turnout is typically lower than during presidential election years, particularly for young people. Do the poll numbers support or debunk the theory that the trend will continue this year?

King: It's certainly the case that when there's a president at the top of the ticket, more people turn out to vote. And it's certainly the case that younger Americans have been less likely to vote than older Americans. But when you look at the last presidential election, 2000 versus 2004, almost all of the increase in turn out that we saw in the country came from the under-30 crowd. And the biggest increase was those 18-24. In fact, in that college age group, 18-24 had the highest turnout since 1972 when they were given the right to vote as 18 year olds.

Will we see something similar this time? Absolutely. All indications are that we are going to have the highest turnout rate among the 18-to-24 set that we've seen in an off-year election since 1974. A full third of our respondents both in college and out say that they are definitely planning on voting. What does that look like as compared to the past? Well, in the last off-year election, 2002, only 17.9 percent of the 18-24 year old crowd turned out to vote. The turnout four years earlier was 20.2 percent; four years earlier, 20 percent. This time, very clearly, over a third of America's young people will turn out to vote. It will be the largest increase in turnout of any demographic group, and that's what Americans will be talking about after the election. They'll say, 'My goodness, the Democrats have taken control of the House,' and may be saying the same about the Senate, and the increase in turnout and the passion will have come from America's young people. This is not a generation of slackers, not a generation like their parents or their older siblings, or the baby boomers and generation X. These kids are involved, and they're animated, and they're going to vote.

Q: Recent national polls of the general public seem to indicate Democrats will pick up several seats in the House and/or Senate on Nov. 7. What does the poll reflect about the opinions young people hold toward both political parties right now?

King: Young people don't like either party. If you ask the non-college young people which political party they feel closer to, they refuse to feel close to either party. They say 'No, don't force me to choose between Democrats and Republicans!' On college campuses, you have more students who are likely to call themselves Democrats or Republicans, with the Democrats in a slight lead, but the modal answer overwhelmingly is that the 18-to-24 year old crowd is not attached to a political party. They care about politics greatly. They say politics is relevant to our daily lives. But they are not hearing from the campaigns. The campaigns and the parties are not reaching out to them. This is a segment of voters new to the polls, new to the parties, and they are there to be taken. They'll make a big difference in getting rid of incumbents, which in this case is going to be overwhelmingly Republicans. They're animated about the war. But it doesn't mean they are the next generation of Democrats or the next generation of Republicans. They are the next generation of voters.

Q: What do the poll results indicate about young peoples' attitudes about public service and volunteerism in general?

King: This is another area where we expected to see large differences between those in college and those not in college. In fact, young people in college are participating in community service at consistently high rates. Just about two-thirds are involved in some sort of community service over the previous year. But for those who are not in college, it's over 50 percent. There is a spirit of volunteerism whether one is in college or not in college that we simply didn't see a generation ago. Well over half of America's young people are actively involved in serving in their community. They're not just tuned into myspace.com and playing around on Facebook. They're out and meeting their neighbors. They are involved in their community through community service. And that is translating into care about public service and political activism.

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