How Europe's Elections Are Reshaping Queer Rights

The views expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Carr-Ryan Center for Human Rights or Harvard Kennedy School. These perspectives have been presented to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. 

Leo Varadkar, Carr-Ryan Senior Fellow and former Taoiseach of Ireland, examines how recent elections in Europe have shaken up party politics and election strategy when it comes to LGBTQI+ rights.

Elections matter, and they matter for queer people. Earlier this year, the LGBTQI+ community was buoyed up by the Netherlands electing its first openly gay Prime Minister, Rob Jetten, leading a centrist and socially liberal coalition. His fiancé comes from Argentina, and they are comfortable sharing videos and pictures about their relationship on social media.

The far-right, which led the country’s last government, was left on the opposition benches. It should be said, however, that the main far-right in the Netherlands, which is led by Geert Wilders, is not anti-gay. It focussed on opposition to migration, hostility towards Islam, and scepticism towards the European Union. In fact, it often tries to present itself as the defender of Dutch liberalism against the rising ‘islamification’, which it claims threatens equality for women and queer people. It is also a strong supporter of Israel. Every country’s politics are different!

Nonetheless, it has to be positive for the community that a country of 20 million people has an openly gay Prime Minister and that, once again, there is at least one gay person at the table when European Leaders meet to make the big decisions in Brussels. The main issues in the election were ‘bread and butter’ ones like the cost of living and housing. Jetten focused on these while accepting more restrictive policies on migration to neutralise the appeal of the right. He also embraced the Dutch flag. National flags are too often misused as a political symbol by nationalists and populists. There can be lessons here for liberals seeking to win elections elsewhere.

Last week was the big one. Hungarians ended 16 years of rule by Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party. Orbán opposed European support for Ukraine and is close to both President Putin and President Trump. Originally a liberal conservative party, Fidesz in government became increasing authoritarian, limiting press freedom, academic freedom, curtailing the work of NGOs, banning gender recognition, which had previously been permitted through a court procedure in 2020, and passing strict ‘don’t say gay’ laws in 2021, which culminated in a ban on Budapest Pride last year on the grounds that children should not be exposed to ‘gay ideology’ on the streets.

Last year, hundreds of thousands of people — queer people, their allies, and opponents of the government — turned up anyway and defied the ban, filling the streets of Budapest. While I could not make the march on the day, I attended the human rights conference in the run-up to it to show my support and offer any advice I could. Interestingly, Orbán and Fidesz dropped anti-LGBT rhetoric from their campaign. It’s unclear why, but perhaps their polling showed it was not resonating anymore, or even that was starting to backfire. In polls, most Hungarians support equality for and oppose discrimination against gay people. Some polls indicate support for same-sex marriage. Hungary currently has civil partnership. Its constitution defines marriage as being solely between a man and a woman.

Fidesz was defeated by a new party, Tisza, led by Peter Magyar, himself formerly of Fidesz. He won a massive majority on a huge turnout, winning in rural areas as well as sweeping the big cities. He focused on corruption, slow economic growth, and a commitment to bring Hungary back into the heart of Europe. He carried the Hungarian flag with him everywhere he went and promised to maintain Hungary’s strict approach to migration. The fact that liberal, left-wing, and green parties stepped aside to give him a free run, rather than attacking him for not being liberal enough, is noteworthy. A previous attempt to defeat Orbán by a multi-party alliance was unsuccessful the last time out.

With a parliamentary super-majority, Magyar has the votes to undo all of the changes made to the constitution by Orbán. Expectations among queer Hungarians are muted. He opposed the ban on Pride on the grounds that it infringed on the right to assembly but did not turn up to offer solidarity, and he discouraged political allies from doing so. It was notable that, in his acceptance speech addressing thousands of supporters on the banks of the Danube river, he referenced gay people, saying he ‘wanted a country where nobody is stigmatised because they love someone different from the majority’. Life will become easier for queer people in Hungary, and hopefully more younger Hungarians will now return. Pride marches will not be restricted, and Hungary will return to EU norms when it comes to human rights and the rule of law. There’s a good chance that anti-gay laws will be repealed altogether or heavily watered down. Achieving goals like marriage equality, for example, seem less likely. One likely benefit, however, will be the cutting off of Hungarian funding for ultra-conservative think tanks in Brussels and elsewhere that opposed rights.

Last Sunday, Bulgaria also went to the polls. After years of unstable governments and a series of early elections, Bulgarians voted decisively for another new party (Progressive Bulgaria), led by former President Rumen Radev. Radev began his political journey on the centre-left but has acted as a conservative on social issues. He signed a 2024 law restricting any discussion of gay relationships or transgender people in educational settings. Sex-same marriage is unconstitutional, and there is no civil partnership, though it has been discussed.

Radev wants a better relationship with Russia, noting their role in liberating Bulgaria from the Ottoman Turks and their importance as a provider of oil and gas. Liberals in Brussels and elsewhere, delighted at the victory in Hungary, must have been a little deflated to see Radev win an absolute majority, beating both of the traditional big centre-right and liberal parties that are pro-EU and pro-NATO. Radev is not, however, a culture warrior, and the far-right, which sponsored the anti-gay education law, lost ground in the election, barely achieving the 4% necessary to win any seats. The jury is out as to how it will impact queer people in Bulgaria, but I do not think Radev will want to be a new Orbán. Bulgaria is also much more integrated into the European Union, having adopted the euro earlier this year.

It’s difficult to draw any clear lessons from these elections, but perhaps there are some. Politics is more volatile and fragmented than before, and the party leader, as standard-bearer, is more important than was the case in the past. Ultra-conservatives and right-wing populists can be beaten back and removed from office with a focus on ‘everyday’ or the ‘dinner table’ issues that concern most people, like the cost of living, housing, and corruption or incompetence. The hard right should be not be allowed to co-opt national symbols or flags as their own political logos. They belong to liberals and moderates, too, which means embracing them. Public concerns about migration need to be taken into account and, rather than attacking the strongest candidate who can win for not being liberal or left-wing enough, progressives need to come behind them.