Chance Neglect in Performance Judgments

This article investigates how individuals systematically underestimate the role of chance when evaluating performance outcomes. Through experimental studies, the authors show that people tend to attribute success and failure too strongly to skill or effort while neglecting randomness and statistical variation. The findings have implications for judgments in education, employment, sports, and organizational settings, where performance evaluations may overreward or penalize individuals based on outcomes influenced substantially by luck.