The Economic Drivers of State Violence against Civilians: Evidence from Myanmar

This paper investigates the economic forces driving violence against civilians, focusing on evidence from Myanmar. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, the authors find that violence increases in rice-suitable townships when rice prices rise — a pattern that diverges from typical two-sided conflict models. They argue that large power asymmetries inherent in civilian persecution explain this result and support their empirical findings with an original survey of Rohingya refugees.