Exports in Disguise: Trade Re-Routing During the U.S.-China Trade War

Origin-specific tariffs are a common policy tool; however, critics claim that such tariffs are often circumvented by rerouting goods through intermediary countries. This study examines whether rerouting increased due to the 2018-2019 U.S.–China trade war via Vietnam. We define rerouting at the product level as the maximum value of trade flows from China to the U.S., passing through Vietnam, for identical HS 8-digit products within the same quarter. Additionally, we employ a firm-level definition, which only considers such flows within the same firm.