Long term impact of a Cash-Transfers Program on Labor Outcomes of the Rural Youth

CID Working Paper No. 230

Eduardo Rodríguez-Oreggia and Samuel Freije
January 2012


This paper evaluates if, after ten years of implementation, the conditional cash transfer program Progresa/Oportunidades has had an effect on labor market outcomes among young beneficiaries in rural Mexico. We use a specific module for the young aged 14 to 24 in the 2007 wave of the Rural Households Evaluation Survey and apply a multi-treatment methodology for different time exposition to the program to identify effects on employment probability, wages, migration and intergenerational occupational mobility. Our results show very little evidence of program impacts on employment, wages or inter-generational occupational mobility among the cohort of beneficiaries under study. This suggests that, despite well documented effects on human capital accumulation of the beneficiaries, labor market prospects in the localities under the program remain sparse.

JEL subject codes: C21, D63, J24, J62, R23

Keywords: impact evaluation, intergenerational mobility, poverty, labor market