Getting Real About Unknowns in Complex Policy Work

This working paper examines how public policy practitioners confront uncertainty and incomplete knowledge in complex policy environments. Andrews argues that conventional planning and budgeting approaches often assume policymakers possess sufficient information upfront, even though real-world policy implementation is characterized by substantial “unknowns.” Using evidence from education policy interventions in Mozambique, the paper introduces a framework for identifying and assessing critical unknowns in policy design and implementation. The study advocates for more adaptive, iterative, and realistic approaches to complex policy work that acknowledge uncertainty rather than obscuring it through rigid planning processes.