Immigrant Earnings Assimilation, 1981–2021

This paper examines trends in the earnings assimilation of immigrants in the United States over a forty-one-year period from 1981 to 2021. Using longitudinal administrative earnings data that track immigrants from their first year of residence onward, the authors provide the first long-run analysis of immigrant earnings assimilation while explicitly accounting for return migration. The study estimates earnings trajectories separately for immigrants who remain in the United States and those who eventually return to their countries of origin. By incorporating return migration into the analysis, the paper offers new insights into immigrant labor market integration, earnings growth, and the changing economic experiences of immigrant cohorts over time.