Return Migration Decisions and Declining Earnings: Immigrants in Linked Survey and Administrative Data

This article examines the relationship between return migration and earnings trajectories among recent immigrants to the United States. Using a novel panel dataset linking U.S. Census Bureau survey records with Internal Revenue Service administrative data for immigrants arriving between 2005 and 2007, the authors show that nearly 40 percent of immigrants return migrate within ten years of arrival. The study finds that return migrants experience significant declines in earnings during the two to three years preceding their departure, suggesting that worsening labor market outcomes play an important role in emigration decisions. The findings provide new insights into immigrant economic assimilation, selection effects in migration studies, and the dynamics of return migration.