Social Protection: Policymaker Beliefs and Empirical Evidence

This chapter examines how policymakers’ beliefs about social protection programs align with the empirical evidence on their impacts. The authors synthesize research on the effectiveness of social insurance, safety nets, and targeted assistance, and analyze how cognitive biases and heuristics influence policymakers’ expectations about program outcomes. Using case studies and empirical results from developing and developed countries, the chapter highlights gaps between policymakers’ beliefs and rigorous evidence, offering guidance for better design and implementation of social protection policies.