Trade Tariffs, Rerouting and the Price of Uncertainty

This BiGS Actionable Intelligence piece explores how trade tariffs and related policy uncertainty shape global trade flows and business decision-making. Drawing on firm-level evidence of rerouting after tariff impositions — such as rerouting exports through third countries — the authors argue that tariffs often increase trade costs and uncertainty without delivering intended policy outcomes. The analysis highlights that tariff uncertainty may now rival tariffs themselves as a defining feature of the global trading environment, influencing firm behavior and market outcomes