Is the United States Undergoing a Manufacturing Renaissance That Will Boost the Middle Class?

This policy brief evaluates claims that recent U.S. industrial policies—including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act—are generating a manufacturing renaissance capable of revitalizing the middle class. Lawrence finds limited evidence of a broad-based resurgence in manufacturing employment or productivity as of mid-2024, noting that manufacturing output growth has lagged overall GDP growth and employment gains remain modest. While announced investment projects could generate additional manufacturing demand in the future, the paper argues that the overall effects are likely to be relatively small in relation to total U.S. employment and insufficient to substantially transform opportunities for most non-college-educated workers.