By Raul Duarte
Why might educated citizens in authoritarian states choose to disengage from politics rather than push for reform?
This paper, written by CID Faculty Affiliate Kevin Croke and co-authors, challenges the widely held belief that education consistently increases political participation. Drawing on a natural experiment in Zimbabwe, an archetypal electoral authoritarian regime, the authors demonstrate that more educated citizens are, paradoxically, less likely to engage in political activities. They attribute this to deliberate disengagement: a strategic decision by educated individuals to avoid legitimizing an unresponsive and coercive regime.
Key Findings:
- Education reduces noncontentious political engagement: Leveraging Zimbabwe’s 1980 education reform, the study shows that individuals with more schooling are significantly less likely to vote, attend community meetings, contact local leaders, or speak in public forums. Each additional year of education reduces political participation by roughly 15%.
- Disengagement reflects political consciousness, not apathy: More educated citizens are better informed about politics, consume more news, express stronger democratic preferences, and are more critical of the ruling regime. These behaviors suggest that their disengagement is a form of protest rather than a result of disinterest or exclusion.
- Context matters for political withdrawal: The negative effect of education on participation disappears in the aftermath of Zimbabwe’s more competitive 2008 election. This shift indicates that educated citizens are willing to re-engage when they perceive elections as meaningful, supporting the theory that disengagement is contingent and strategic.
- Alternative explanations ruled out: The authors conduct extensive robustness checks and reject competing hypotheses including selective repression, exposure to clientelism, or “coming of age” effects linked to political socialization. They also perform placebo tests and sensitivity analyses to confirm the causal interpretation.
Impact and Relevance:
This research revises a core assumption in political science: that rising education levels naturally promote political engagement. By showing that educated individuals may withdraw from participation in authoritarian settings, the study highlights that engagement depends not only on capacity, but also on the perceived legitimacy and competitiveness of political institutions. This redefinition has major implications for understanding civic behavior under authoritarian rule.
The findings also reshape expectations about regime resilience and democratic transitions. Traditional modernization theory predicts that education fosters liberalization. But this work shows that authoritarian regimes can remain stable, even amid expanding education, if political competition remains constrained. Education can create critically minded, pro-democratic citizens who, instead of resisting openly, choose strategic nonparticipation when elections are seen as hollow.
Finally, the study speaks to global debates about how authoritarian regimes adapt to modernity. As many states combine formal democratic institutions with authoritarian control, understanding how citizens navigate this ambiguity is crucial. The concept of deliberate disengagement helps explain why autocratic regimes often retain high turnout and apparent stability despite rising education and frustration. It also highlights the limits of using participation metrics alone to assess democratic health. Ultimately, the research reminds us that participation is not always a signal of empowerment—and that silence, in some contexts, is a deeply political act.
CID Faculty Affiliate Author
Kevin Croke
Kevin Croke is an associate professor of global health in the Department of Global Health and Population at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (HSPH), and director of the International Health Systems Program. Croke is a faculty affiliate of the Harvard Center for International Development and the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies. Croke's research focuses on the politics of health and health systems, and on evaluation of large-scale health programs and policies.
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