HKS Affiliated Authors
Frank Plumpton Ramsey Professor of Political Economy
Excerpt
Excerpt
Assessing Uncertainty in Intelligence. Jeffrey Friedman, Richard Zeckhauser, June 2012, Paper. "This article addresses the challenge of managing uncertainty when producing estimative intelligence. Much of the theory and practice of estimative intelligence aims to eliminate or reduce uncertainty, but this is often impossible or infeasible. This article instead argues that the goal of estimative intelligence should be to assess uncertainty. By drawing on a body of nearly 400 declassified National Intelligence Estimates as well as prominent texts on analytic tradecraft, this article argues that current tradecraft methods attempt to eliminate..." Link