The Beveridge curve still indicates low probability for a soft landing - Alex Domash and Lawrence H. Summers

August 30, 2022, Opinion: "In a recent paper published with Olivier Blanchard in July 2022, we argued that the Fed’s hope to cool the labor market through a decrease in job vacancies alone — without an increase in unemployment — was highly implausible. The empirical evidence shows that there has never been a historical example where job vacancies came down in a substantial way without a significant increase in unemployment."

HKS Faculty Author - Lawrence H. Summers
HKS M-RCBG Affiliate - Alex Domash