HKS Affiliated Authors


Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence From The 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis. Jeffrey Frankel, July 1, 2012, Paper. “We investigate whether leading indicators can help explain the cross-country incidence of the 2008–09 financial crisis. Rather than looking for indicators with specific relevance to the recent crisis, the selection of variables is driven by an extensive review of more than eighty papers from the previous literature on early warning indicators. Our motivation is to address suspicions that indicators found to be useful predictors in one round of crises are typically not useful to predict the next round..." Link