HKS Affiliated Authors

Frank and Denie Weil Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government
Charles W. Eliot University Professor


February 27, 2023, Opinion: "In recent months, wage growth has showed signs of slowing despite an extraordinarily tight labour market, which has presented a puzzle for standard models of labour market slack. This column shows that contrary to what many have claimed, wage growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 was actually in line with what a standard Phillips curve model predicts. The authors argue that labour market tightness today implies wage growth that is roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage points higher than in 2019, and that without any additional softening in the labour market, this level of wage inflation is likely to continue in 2023. " Read Via Vox