HKS Affiliated Authors
Frank Plumpton Ramsey Professor of Political Economy
Roy E. Larsen Professor of Public Policy
Excerpt
Excerpt
The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns. Christopher Avery, Richard Zeckhauser, July 2011, Paper. "We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the “CAPS” website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative about future stock prices. Indeed, a strategy of shorting stocks with a disproportionate number of negative picks on the site and buying stocks with a disproportionate number of positive picks produces a return of over nine percent per annum over the sample period. These results..." Link