Excerpt
Excerpt
Does Precautionary Savings Drive the Real Interest Rate? Evidence from the Stock Market. Emil Siriwardane, Adi Sunderam, August 6, 2017, Paper, "We document a strong and robust relation between the one-year real rate and precautionary savings motives, as measured by the stock market. Our novel proxy for precautionary savings, based on the difference in valuations between low- and highvolatility stocks, explains 37% of variation in the real rate. In addition, the real rate forecasts returns on the low-minus-high volatility portfolio, though it appears unrelated with measures of the quantity of risk. Our results suggest that precautionary savings motives, and thus the real rate, are driven by time-varying attitudes towards risk. We rationalize these findings in a stylized model with segmented investor clienteles and habit formation." Link