HKS Affiliated Authors


Effects of Speculation and Interest Rates in a “Carry Trade” Model of Commodity Prices. Jeffrey Frankel, January 2014, Paper. "The paper presents and estimates a model of the prices of oil and other storable commodities, a model that can be characterized as reflecting the carry trade. It focuses on speculative factors, here defined as the trade-off between interest rates on the one hand and market participants’ expectations of future price changes on the other hand. It goes beyond past research by bringing to bear new data sources..." Link verified June 19, 2014