• Samuel Hanson


The Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates: A Tale of Two Frequencies. Samuel Hanson, October 15, 2018, Paper, "Long-term nominal interest rates are known to be highly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. We find that, since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes (at 6- or 12-month horizons) in short- and long-term rates, which was also strong before 2000, has weakened substantially. We show that this puzzling post-2000 combination of high-frequency “excess sensitivity” and low-frequency “decoupling” of short- and long-term rates arises because increases in short rates temporarily raise the term premium on long-term bonds, leading long rates to temporarily overreact to changes in short rates." Link