November 10, 2021, Opinion: "Elevated inflation readings, particularly in the US, are causing many pundits to express a dim view of the pandemic-triggered fiscal and monetary expansions. They warn of looming runaway inflation. Consumer price index inflation in October was 6.2% year-on-year (4.6% excluding food and energy). Compared to before the pandemic, federal debt has risen by 18.5 percentage points of gross domestic product and the Federal Reserve has doubled the size of its balance sheet. Sustained government spending seems to be in the pipeline and the Fed has done little beyond announce the start of gradual tapering. The case would seem to make itself. Not so fast."
MRCBG Fellow - Paul Sheard