Global and regional impact of solar geoengineering on temperature-attributable mortality - Anthony Harding and David Keith

2022, Paper: "Temperature-attributable mortality is a major risk of climate change. Here we quantitatively analyze the capacity of solar geoengineering to reduce this risk applying an empirical methodology. Using the GFDL/FLOR model – modeling solar geoengineering as a uniform solar constant reduction – we find that solar geoengineering reduces temperature-attributable mortality by around 13% more than the reduction for equivalent global cooling through emissions reductions. This is likely due to the dampening of the equator-to-pole gradient and the reduction in intra-annual temperature variability with uniform solar geoengineering. Using the GLENS simulations – modeling stratospheric injection of sulphate aerosols to manage multiple temperature targets – we find that solar geoengineering reduces temperature-attributable mortality by around 157 deaths/100,000 by the end of the century relative to a high emissions scenario. This is about two orders of magnitude larger than estimates of the novel mortality risks introduced by solar geoengineering."

HKS Faculty Author - David Keith
HKS Affiliate Author - Anthony Harding