How US Export Controls Have (and Haven't) Curbed Chinese AI

July 8, 2025, Opinion: "For over half a decade, the United States has imposed significant semiconductor export controls on China, aiming to slow China’s chip industry and to retain US leadership in the computing capabilities that undergird AI advances. Have these controls achieved their goals? Have the assumptions driving them been confirmed or undermined by the rapid evolution of the chip industry and AI capabilities? Three factors for assessing chip export controls. We can now draw preliminary conclusions by assessing three factors: China’s domestic chipmaking capability, the sophistication of its AI models, and its market share in providing AI infrastructure."