• Nathaniel Hendren


Knowledge of Future Job Loss and Implications for Unemployment Insurance. Nathaniel Hendren, August 2015, Paper, "This paper studies the positive and normative implications of individuals’ knowledge about their potential future job loss. Using information contained in subjective probability elicitations, I show individuals have significant information about their chances of losing their job conditional on a wide range of observable information insurers could potentially use to price the insurance. I derive lower bounds that suggest individuals would need to be willing to pay at least a 75% markup in order to generate the existence of a private unemployment insurance market, far exceeding willingness-to-pay estimates. I derive semi-parametric point estimates of this markup in excess of 300%. This suggests private information about future job loss provides a micro-foundation for the absence of a private unemployment insurance market." Link