The Price Impact of Canadian Retaliatory Tariffs

February 2026, Paper: "Canada’s 2025 retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports provide a quasi-natural experi mentonretail price pass-through. We combine daily product-level posted prices from seven major Canadian retailers (October 2024 to January 2026) with product-level tar iff exposure to estimate pass-through in a difference-in-differences framework. Tar iffed goods experience gradual price increase of 6.3% by August, with few spillovers to untariffed products. When most tariffs are removed on September 1, 2025, price effects unwind rapidly, generating pronounced asymmetry. Pass-through also shifts around major trade-policy news and is substantially larger when products are labeled “Tariffed” at the point of sale, consistent with expectations and information shaping pricing."