M-RCBG Associate Working Paper No. 231
The Future of U.S. Development Assistance to Ukraine: Facilitating Ukraine’s EU Accession in the Agriculture, Energy, and Tech Sectors
Ethan Lundgren
Seth Myers
Ilya Timtchenko
2023 Policy Analysis Exercise Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development Bureau of Europe and Eurasia
Executive Summary
As the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine enters its second year, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) must plan for how it can most effectively contribute to Ukraine’s eventual recovery and reconstruction in partnership with other international donors.
The war has caused extraordinary human, social, and economic harm, with current reconstruction cost estimates ranging between $580 billion - $1.1 trillion. Given the scale of devastation and potential of a prolonged conflict, reconstruction efforts cannot wait until the cessation of hostilities; further, these efforts must be global in nature and involve private-sector participation. As a candidate for European Union (EU) membership, reconstruction must also catalyze Ukraine’s deeper integration with Europe and its accession to the EU. This accession process will be long, complex, and must involve major reforms to the country’s judicial system. Changes to key economic sectors will also be necessary to bring Ukrainian agriculture, energy, and technology firms into alignment with the EU’s 35 acquis, or accession criteria.
This report examines whether – and if so, how – USAID should seek to facilitate Ukrainian firms’ greater alignment with EU standards. While explicitly standards-oriented assistance may expedite Ukraine’s EU accession process, USAID may be able to better contribute to the reconstruction effort via programming that is not directly related to EU standards.