M-RCBG Senior Fellow-Led Study Group: Andrew Collier
Tuesday, February 4, 4:15-5:45pm L-163
From 1992 until the boom ended in 2021, Chinese home property sales grew at an average rate of 25 percent per year. China was awash in new construction — often in the middle of empty fields far from city centers. In the United States and Europe real estate generally is less than 10 per cent of fixed asset investment. It was much higher in China. Real estate investment grew rapidly from 4 per cent of GDP in 1997 to 15 per cent of GDP in 2014, accounting for 15 per cent of fixed asset investment and 15 per cent of urban employment. In some cities it topped 40 percent of local investment. China has built more housing per person than any major European country even though its GDP per capita is only one-third as high.
However, concerned about a speculative bubble, the leadership crashed the market in 2020 with a new set of rules, the “Three Red Lines,” forcing developers to halt or slow construction. As a result, China has lost its top contributor to economic growth and is struggling to replace it. What does this mean for geopolitics? Slowing Chinese growth will weaken the country’s global position militarily and politically and force the leadership to make hard choices about economic allocation.
This study group / discussion is open to all HUID holders. Registration is not necessary.
M-RCBG welcomes individuals with disabilities to participate in its programs. To request accommodations or ask questions about access provided, please email: mrcbg@hks.harvard.edu
Andrew Kemp Collier is the former President of the Bank of China International USA, where he helped to launch BOCI’s U.S. office. BOCI was one of the first investment banks established in China and remains one of the largest global Chinese firms. Previously, he was an equity analyst with Bear Stearns and CLSA in Hong Kong, covering the Asian airline sector and media companies. Earlier in his career, he was a journalist in New York, Chicago, London and Beijing, for Bloomberg, the South China Morning Post and other publications. He has a Master’s Degree in International Relations and Chinese Studies from Yale University and studied Chinese at Peking University. He also is a Senior Fellow at the Mansfield Foundation in Washington. He currently conducts macroeconomic research on China’s economy for institutional investors that is distributed through Global Source Partners in New York. Mr. Collier has published three books on China: “Shadow Banking and the Rise of Capitalism in China” (2017); “China Buys the World: Analyzing China’s Overseas Investments” (2018); and “China’s Technology War: Why Beijing Took Down Its Tech Giants” (2022). After twelve years in Hong Kong, Mr. Collier recently relocated to Denver. In his spare time, Mr. Collier is an accomplished jazz drummer. As an M-RCBG Senior Fellow Mr. Collier will be working on a book on the historical and institutional factors that led to the collapse of China’s property market, and the impact this will have both on China’s domestic political economy and the global order. His faculty sponsor is Meg Rithmire, the F. Warren McFarlan associate professor in the Business, Government, and International Economy Unit at Harvard Business School. Email: acollier@hks.harvard.edu