The Politics of Private School Vouchers: Evidence from Three Statewide Referenda

We collect detailed precinct-level data to analyze school choice ballot mea- sures that appeared on the November 2024 ballot in three states. Although we show that these measures performed better in more Republican areas, partisan- ship was only one factor that influenced voting behavior. We also see greater support for school choice among minority voters and — for measures focusing specifically on private school vouchers — among families already sending their children to private schools and those most likely to be dissatisfied with their public school district. Similarly, we find increased opposition to vouchers (but not school choice generically) among voters located in “private school deserts.” Together, our results emphasize the importance of rational and self-interested considerations in shaping mass preferences and voting behavior on education policy issues and have implications for the ongoing political and policy debates.