By Joe Snider
The paper “Where Have All the Good Jobs Gone? Changes in the Geography of Work in the U.S., 1980-2021,” by Gordon Hanson and Enrico Moretti, details where good jobs are located in America and how these locations have changed since 1980 (see this post for an explanation of what a good job is and why it matters). Analyzing the geographic trends of good jobs provides important insights for economic policy: the prevalence of high-paying employment opportunities affects the strength of the middle class and levels of income inequality across regions.
Where Are The Good Jobs Today
There have been diverging outcomes between college and non-college educated workers in the geographic distribution of good jobs since 1980. The maps below illustrate these regional changes in good jobs by education level for the periods 1980-2000 & 2000-2021, with darker shades of blue representing larger good job gains, darker shades of red representing larger losses, and the size of the circle representing the size of the local economic area (called a “commuting zone”).
Since 1980, college educated workers saw their largest gains in good jobs in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and Georgia and the greatest losses of good jobs in the historic Rust Belt states. Notably, good jobs employment remained relatively stable for college workers in the Northeast and West Coast, with specific areas dominating before 2000 (Boston and San Jose) and others gaining greater shares of good jobs after 2000 (New York City and Los Angeles).
Non-college educated workers saw the strongest gains in good jobs in the Southwest, Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas, and the greatest losses of good jobs in the Upper Midwest, New York, Massachusetts, and West Virginia, especially after 2000. Regional differences in good job changes are much more pronounced for non-college educated workers.
For all workers, the primary drivers for the geographic shifts in good jobs are: 1. The overall decline of the American manufacturing sector (particularly within historic Rust Belt areas) and 2. Accelerating service-sector employment growth in the South/Southwest (professional services for college workers and construction jobs for non-college workers).
Geographic Patterns
There has been remarkable consistency in the geographic patterns of US good job placements over the last 50 years. Regions with historically large shares of non-manufacturing good jobs (Bay Area California, Texas, Northeast) have maintained high levels of good jobs since 1980. Conversely, areas that lost significant shares of good jobs to manufacturing (Ohio, West Virginia) have overall failed to find new good jobs in other industries over the last 50 years.
Effectively, the decline in manufacturing has produced a reallocation of good jobs from manufacturing heavy regions to historically non-manufacturing regions of similar economic size. These trends indicate place-based clustering of good jobs- successful regions maintain strong good job levels and attract new employment opportunities over time while underperforming regions struggle to improve their workforce conditions.
In terms of demographic effects, college-educated white men appear to be concentrating the most of any group in areas where they historically already have high amounts of good jobs (Bay Area California, New York). Conversely, black college workers have seen the greatest geographic dispersion of good job placements since 1980, possibly reflecting the more recent economic growth in southern cities like Atlanta, Charlotte, and Raleigh-Durham.
Perhaps surprisingly, the areas that employ the largest numbers of good jobs are still declining in their proportion of total employment classified as good jobs. Therefore, a large presence of good jobs has not been effective at improving overall labor market opportunities within a region or in reducing income inequality. There are two likely explanations for this: 1. The presence of good jobs attracts a proportionally higher amount of low-paying service jobs to support the well-paid population and 2. Areas with more good jobs tend to be in dense urban areas with housing shortages that set an artificial limit on the number of well-paying employment opportunities supportable within that area.
