Lessons from Venezuela: Electoral Resistance to Popular Autocrats (2007–2013)

You are invited to a webinar examining how opposition actors navigated electoral politics under conditions of increasing authoritarian consolidation in Venezuela between 2007 and 2013. Focusing on a period marked by both competitive elections and accelerating institutional erosion, the discussion explores how electoral arenas became sites of resistance, coordination and strategic adaptation under a popular autocrat.

At the center of the discussion are five key milestones:

• The 2007 Constitutional Referendum
• The creation of the opposition coalition Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) in 2008
• Subsequent participation and coordination across several local, regional, legislative, and presidential elections
• The opposition primary elections of 2010–2011
• The 2012–2013 presidential cycle

Together, these moments illustrate how electoral processes were used not only for contestation, but also for coordination, organizational strengthening and political signaling under increasingly uneven conditions.

The webinar advances three core analytical insights. First, opposition strategy during this period reflects a process of pro-democratic learning. The defeat of the constitutional reform in 2007, followed by the institutionalization of coordination through the MUD and the adoption of primary elections, reveals an evolution toward more unified and strategically coherent forms of engagement.

Second, elections in hybrid regimes can function as tools for containing authoritarian advances. These milestones demonstrate how opposition actors can use electoral arenas to build unity, mobilize constituencies, and impose constraints—however partial—on authoritarian consolidation.

Finally, the Venezuelan case highlights pro-authoritarian learning by the regime. As opposition actors improved coordination and electoral competitiveness, incumbents adapted in turn—deploying institutional, legal and coercive mechanisms to manage and limit opposition gains. This dynamic underscores the iterative nature of strategic interaction between authoritarian regimes and their challengers.

Bringing together political leaders, practitioners and scholars with direct experience of these processes, the conversation will reflect on the strategic dilemmas of participation, coordination and resistance under authoritarian constraints. The discussion will also consider the broader implications of these lessons for contemporary cases of democratic backsliding.

More About the Speakers:

• Isabella Picón (Moderator) is a Ph.D. student in political science at George Washington University, specializing in comparative politics and international relations
• Paola Bautista de Alemán is a Venezuelan political scientist, journalist and opposition leader. A national board member of Primero Justicia party and director of the Institute of Political Studies FORMA, she has dedicated her career to analyzing authoritarianism and fostering political capacity-building in Venezuela. She is currently in exile, serving as a Visiting Fellow at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies at the University of Notre Dame.
• Julio Borges is a Venezuelan lawyer, opposition leader and former president of the National Assembly. He co-founded the opposition party Primero Justicia and served as president of the National Assembly in 2017.
• Freddy Guevara is a Venezuelan politician and democracy advocate who served as the first vice president of the National Assembly. A co-founder of the Voluntad Popular party, he has endured years of political persecution, imprisonment and exile for his leadership in nonviolent civil resistance against the Maduro regime. He is currently a Democracy Fellow at the Ash Center and a researcher with the Nonviolent Action Lab, focusing on pro-democracy movements worldwide.
• José Gustavo Arocha is a national security expert, senior Fellow at the Center for a Secure Free Society and a retired Lieutenant Colonel of the Venezuelan Army.
• Roberto Picón is a Venezuelan systems engineer and electoral expert who has played a significant role in efforts to improve election integrity. He served as a rector of the National Electoral Council (CNE) from 2021 to 2023, where he was known for publicly challenging irregularities and advocating for fairer processes.