Managing the Challenges of North Korean Nuclear/Missile Threats

Join us in welcoming Van H. Van Diepen, Principle Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation.

This presentation will examine the most strategically significant advances in North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities and assess how these developments are reshaping Pyongyang’s doctrine, including a potential shift from a retaliatory deterrent toward a more integrated warfighting posture and a lowered threshold for use under a “pre-empting pre-emption” logic. It will explore the range of strategic and operational options these capabilities enable, as well as the risks of escalation stemming from the regime’s designation of South Korea as the “most hostile state.” Situating these dynamics within the broader geopolitical landscape, the talk will analyze how deepening ties with Russia and shifting relations with China may be influencing North Korea’s force development and strategic calculus. It will conclude with an evaluation of key policy alternatives—including deterrence adaptations, arms control and “freeze” proposals, and changes to the regional security architecture—to address the evolving nuclear and missile challenge.