Politicians and their supporters often make claims about how well they have managed “the economy” or how many jobs they have “created.” By the time of this Study Group, US GDP figures for nine quarters under the Trump Administration will be available. What do the GDP numbers and other relevant data such as from the monthly jobs report and the international trade report tell us about the economic performance of the Trump Administration relative to the prior equivalent period under the Obama Administration? How does the picture painted by the data stack up against the rhetoric on both sides of the political aisle? What are some of the things we need to be alert to in assessing the claims and promises of politicians and in interpreting the economic data used by financial market participants? The post-crisis economic expansion is a decade old – does that mean a recession is on the cards soon?
This Study Group will explore these and related questions, drawing on Paul Sheard’s quarter-of-a-century experience as a financial markets economist at several major financial institutions.
A Summary of the 2019 Economic Report of the President,
Summary of the 2017 Economic Report of the President
Speakers and Presenters