Since the start of the war with Iran, the average cost of gasoline per gallon in the United States has increased by more than 50%, reaching $4.50 as of May 12, 2026. On May 11, President Trump proposed a temporary suspension of the gas tax to alleviate the strain on consumers, which would require an act of Congress. We spoke with Jake Sullivan, Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at Harvard Kennedy School, about the relationship between high gas prices and national security.
Sullivan was the 28th national security advisor from 2021 to 2025. In the Obama administration, he served as national security advisor to then-Vice President Biden, director of the policy planning staff at the U.S. Department of State, and deputy chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Q: Why are gas prices so high right now?
Twenty percent of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. And because of the war in Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is currently blockaded. Very few ships are getting through, which means very little oil is getting through, which means that the supply on the global market has been squeezed; it has been reduced. That puts upward pressure on oil prices, which in turn has put upward pressure on gas prices. Until the strait opens back up and oil can flow more freely, we’re going to see a continued elevated price environment.
Q: Why do high gas prices matter for national security?
This matters for national security at a couple different levels. First of all, at the end of the day, national security is about the security of families, working people in the United States of America. Are their lives being made better, safer, and easier? When they have to pay more at the pump because of events overseas, well, that’s a national security issue as well as a pocketbook or economic issue.
Second, high oil prices are a drag on growth. They’re a drag on the global economy. And, of course, the U.S. is connected to the rest of the world economically. When you have that kind of drag on growth, it ends up having an impact on the ability of the United States to continue to have the kind of dynamic economy that delivers for the American people.
And then third, of course, it has a broader impact on inflation. And, inflation, sticky inflation, ends up hurting Americans in ways that could last well beyond just the immediate crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. That has its own set of security as well as economic implications.
Q: Can President Trump help fix this?
There is something that the president could do, and that is reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran on both the nuclear deal and to open the Strait of Hormuz back up. It wouldn’t instantly solve the problem, in the sense that you still need to get supply back up to the levels it was at before this crisis, but it would have an immediate effect. Now, President Trump has thought the way to get the strait back open is first through bombing Iran, and that didn’t play out. Then it was through blockading, and that is not playing out. So I think he’s coming to recognize that a deal, a diplomatic outcome, is really the way to make this happen, and he’s announced that he’s working toward that. But, of course, the situation there is still quite sticky.
“This is a man-made elevation of gas prices, made by the decision to start this war with Iran.”
Q: Are there other shifts Trump or policymakers could take while the war continues?
As long as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz continues and the war with Iran continues, there are some other actions that could be taken. The administration has floated the idea of a gas tax holiday.
There is the possibility of doing some limited drawdowns of the strategic petroleum reserve. But over the last year, the administration has not done a lot to replenish that reserve.
There are things related to regulations about the blend of gasoline [as well]. But all of those have some challenges associated with them and also don’t get to the heart of the problem, which is to basically unblock this vital artery and make sure that enough oil is getting to market so that gas prices go down.
Q: How do gas prices for consumers in the United States shape military and diplomatic decisions and strategy?
If you’re an American worker, an American family, and you’re thinking about making ends meet, one of the big factors is how much you’re paying at the pump when you fill up your tank. It’s the job of the American president and the American government to take actions that make your life affordable in this domain as in other domains.
If something in our foreign policy could actually make your gas less expensive as opposed to more expensive, we should take a look at doing that. It’s not the only factor, and there are many others, but this is a totally legitimate factor.
Q: Has the issue of gas prices shaped American policy before?
It has shaped American policy for decades. The Carter Doctrine talked about energy security in the Middle East being a matter of national priority for the United States.
In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration did a massive release from the strategic petroleum reserve to try to bring down gas prices because of the pinch that people were feeling. Today, it is weighing on people in the White House that if they don’t do something to resolve this crisis, those prices are just going to keep going up and up and up. That is something they have to take into account, because they have to be responsive to the straightforward concerns of American citizens.
Now, it is not the only factor in national security or foreign policy, nor should it be by any stretch. But it is a factor that has to be taken into account.
Q: What does the situation in the Strait of Hormuz mean for international stability?
President Trump has been trying a whole bunch of different things to see how he can get to the other side of this. He’s tried the bombing. He’s tried the blockading. He’s tried the threatening.
As of a couple days ago, he was really leaning heavily into trying to get a diplomatic solution. Diplomacy is hard, and you’re not going to get everything you want. It requires compromise. And Iran is not just accepting the terms the U.S. is laying down. This is leading the president to say, “well, I’ve got to put a little more pressure on,” which then leads him to take some military strikes and try to move some ships through the strait, and that leads Iran to respond. It's all a bit of a dance right now, in my view, to try to shape the diplomatic negotiation and try to create a situation where the U.S. has enough leverage to get a deal they think is good.
My own view is that this is quite dangerous because the more you think, “Oh, I just have to take one more strike and then everything will be okay,” the more likely you are to court escalation and continued conflict as opposed to get to the table and get to a deal.
What we’re watching right now is basically a dynamic where both sides are posturing and positioning themselves as they continue to negotiate to see if there’s an endgame both with respect to the strait and with respect to the nuclear deal. It’s a moment very much fraught with risk and uncertainty because each side could easily miscalculate, and this could slide back into a more open conflict than we have seen over the course of the past couple of weeks since the ceasefire.
Q: What’s the impact of President Trump’s frequent declarations that the war has ended?
I think it’s very confusing to a lot of people, including the American people. But the message that he’s sending to Iran, in my view, is one that indicates he doesn’t really want to go back to war. He would much prefer some other magic solution to this whole thing, but he also doesn’t really want to just do a deal. I think from the Iranian perspective, all of the threats lose some of the force or credibility that they might otherwise have because he keeps saying the war is over. But for the rest of the world, the assertion the war is over loses some of its force and credibility because they see strikes [continuing].
The inconsistent messaging, the swerving, the zigging and zagging, is not helping to bring about a steady and effective and durable resolution to this crisis.
Q: Will gas prices return to normal when the war ends?
This is a man-made elevation of gas prices, made by the decision to start this war with Iran. When the war is over, there are plenty of reasons to believe that over time, gas prices should come back to where they were. But I do have to emphasize “over time” because I don’t think it will be instantaneous in part [because it will require] real efforts to get production back up to where it was before.
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Photography by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images and Ken Richardson.
Caption: Gas prices over $6 a gallon are displayed at a Mobil station on May 04, 2026, in Los Angeles, California. Gas prices have surged to a national average of $4.45 a gallon, a 4-year high, as tensions in the Middle East continue. Gasoline in California is over $6 a gallon.
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