Only a few weeks into Donald Trump’s second administration, it is evident that the president is more than willing to make unpredictable political moves that may blindside even his closest advisors. When it comes to U.S.-China relations, Trump has talked about imposing stiff tariffs, but it is unclear whether his stance will soften. Despite the U.S. president’s economic threats, he has claimed to respect Xi Jinping and is surprisingly popular in China.
We asked faculty members Rana Mitter and Anthony Saich to share their insights on how they think U.S.-China relations may evolve, and how they may affect both countries. Rana Mitter is the S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations. Anthony Saich is the director of the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs.
A Trump administration may be good for China—despite tariff headaches
Rana Mitter
Donald Trump is very popular in China. This might seem surprising, considering his frequent accusations that the country has been ruining the U.S. economy. But a recent opinion poll for the European Council on Foreign Relations, part of a global survey on the new president, suggests that 46% of Chinese surveyed thought he was good for China, and 36% didn’t know. That’s not far off his current ratings in the United States.
That perception might be one reason why the recent imposition of 10% tariffs on Chinese goods was much lower than the 60% threatened during the election campaign. The new tariffs certainly cause China a headache, but hardly a nightmare. China, in turn, has reacted quite mildly (by Beijing standards), lodging a case at the WTO (which has already been weakened by the first Trump and the Biden administrations), and launching an antitrust investigation into Google (whose search engine has long been banned in China anyway, though it does still provide the Android operating system for phones).
“People often assume public opinion doesn’t matter in China because it’s an authoritarian state that doesn’t hold elections. But actually, public opinion matters a great deal in shaping public policy.”
The first few weeks of the administration have set a lower-key tone than many expected to the relationship with China. Yet the underlying structure of the relationship is still very bumpy, with relatively few areas of genuine common interest. One of those areas, however, is peaceful and economically productive stability. With that in mind, the administration could move toward reversing the tariffs it has imposed on Beijing. First, it seems unlikely that they’ll do much to change China’s attitude toward the U.S.; China has a big trade surplus with the rest of the world, after all. The tariffs will, however, change behavior with other countries and entities that are essential to maintaining a strong nexus for U.S. influence in the world. A China hit by U.S. tariffs will likely lean further into deepening its relationship with the EU on technology and industrial strategy and shaping emerging middle-class markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America. That doesn’t sound like a good deal for U.S. influence in the longer term.
Instead, the Trump administration could lean into the unexpected warmth toward the new president among the population of the United States’s greatest challenger. People often assume public opinion doesn’t matter in China because it’s an authoritarian state that doesn’t hold elections. But actually, public opinion matters a great deal in shaping public policy. Look at Chinese social media to see how frequently citizens complain about low salaries, dodgy banks, and corrupt officials, as well as counterintuitive crazes (re in Chinese) such as praise for Trump. Rest assured, the state is reading what they say. That widespread admiration for Trump among the middle class is likely not echoed in the Politburo. But reversing the tariffs might be a PR win for the new administration among China’s “netizens.” And that might be an unexpected benefit when it comes to those hard conversations—on trade, Taiwan, and technology—the president might want to have with the man whom he says he “likes very much”: Xi Jinping.
Rana Mitter is the S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations. Read more from affiliates of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs who have spoken and written about what the new U.S. presidential administration may bring to one of the world’s most consequential geopolitical relationships.
All crows under heaven are the same black
Anthony Saich
The classical Chinese phrase “all crows under heaven are the same black” was used before the election to suggest that no matter who won, relations would not improve or be different. However, this is not true. A Harris victory would have provided a stable environment for the Chinese leadership to respond to. Trump’s victory has already revealed the challenge of dealing with an unpredictable president.
For the most, the response of academics, think tanks, and government agencies has been pessimistic about the future of the relationship. This is driven by what they see as the inevitable rivalry and the measures of the Trump administration at the end of his first term. The key question that Beijing is dealing with is which Trump will turn up: the ultimate dealmaker, whose threats seek to apply pressure to get more favorable terms, or the president, who wants to ensure that the U.S. remains number one and China’s development capacity is stunted? Analysts in Beijing see the latter as being in line with the views of the majority of his appointees and U.S. think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation.
Practice, to date, presents a more complex picture, with actions to support the view of the pessimists and the smaller band of optimists. Given Trump’s approach to leadership, with spontaneous gestures and his professed admiration of Xi Jinping, a coherent, integrated plan on how to deal with China seems unlikely to emerge, or will, at least, be a long time coming.
“Given Trump’s approach to leadership, with spontaneous gestures and his professed admiration of Xi Jinping, a coherent, integrated plan on how to deal with China seems unlikely to emerge, or will, at least, be a long time coming.”
To date, his threat of 60% tariffs across the board has not been implemented and he has even suggested that he would like not to impose tariffs on China, although he has noted that the delay is to give time for a full review. His change of mind on TikTok gives hope to those who see the deal-making Trump. However, he has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods related to his accusation of China’s involvement in the production of materials necessary for fentanyl.
China’s response has been measured, including their decision to impose 10% to 15% tariffs on certain U.S. goods and referring U.S. actions to the toothless WTO dispute mechanism. These were delayed until February 10, suggested that Beijing hoped that it might be interacting with the deal-making Trump. This was not the case and a phone call between Trump and Xi, which may have cooled escalation, was cancelled
A common online phrase in China is “Trump builder of our nation,” with analysts indicating that his policies will weaken the U.S. and provide opportunities for China. His first month in office has already provided them with some evidence for that view. First, his decision to withdraw from the WTO and the Paris Climate Agreement gives China the opportunity to stake a claim to global leadership as it moves to fill the gap. Second, his threat of tariffs on neighbors and the European Union and his seeming lack of interest in regional security arrangements, opens the way for China to exploit tensions and promote its own interests. Third, Trump’s aggressive territorial claims, even if not realized, will help strengthen the legitimacy of China’s own claims to “recover” Taiwan.
Thus, while in China the pessimists may be correct about the future of the U.S.-China relationship, the optimists can feel good about the opportunities his leadership could provide for the nation to promote its own interests.
Anthony Saich is the director of the Rajawali Foundation Institute for Asia and Daewoo Professor of International Affairs.
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Banner photograph by Jason Lee/AFP/Getty Images; Inline photograph by Thomas Peter-Pool/Getty Images; Portraits by Ken Richardson and Martha Stewart