South Korea’s complicated political situation came suddenly to the world’s attention earlier this month as President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law. The decision was met with an immediate reaction by the country’s national assembly as well as by the public and was quickly reversed. But the events have escalated an already tense and polarized political situation into a much more volatile state. We spoke with Jeeyang Rhee Baum, an adjunct lecturer in public policy at HKS who studies politics and political institutions with a particular focus on East Asia, about the situation that led to the current crisis, the possible outcomes, and its effect on South Korea’s important international role.
What prompted this crisis?
As in many presidential democracies with divided government, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ruling conservative People Power Party (PPP) faced a situation that made the country inherently difficult to govern. Yoon came to power after winning the 2022 presidential election by a slim margin of less than 1%. The center-left opposition Democratic Party (DP) not only kept its majority in the National Assembly, Korea’s unicameral legislature, but expanded it to a supermajority in the recent April general election, leaving them in control of 192 of 300 seats, aided by a 67% percent voter turnout—the highest in 32 years. There, they have opposed Yoon’s efforts to cut corporate taxes, overhaul the pension system, and address housing prices. Yoon has also faced labor unrest, including a nearly year-long doctor’s strike, protesting his planned changes to health care policy. Moreover, he has faced resistance to his appointments, including in the prosecutor’s office and in the judiciary. Consequently, relations between the executive and the legislative branches have grown increasingly strained as Yoon vetoed bills that the National Assembly passed. Yoon’s approval rating plummeted even before the martial law decree: from between 28% and 30% in polls conducted between July 2022 and February 2024 to 19% last month. With mounting public pressure, criminal accusations against Yoon’s wife Kim Keon-hee, the country’s controversial first lady, and a factional divide within the PPP, Yoon became frustrated over the political process that led him to characterize the opposition as “anti-state forces.” These are some of the factors that contributed to heightened tension between the two main competing parties that appear to have culminated in the December 3 martial law declaration.
“These developments reveal ongoing institutional weaknesses and challenges faced by a young democracy.”
What does it say about how democracy and institutions work in South Korea?
There are two sides to this question. On the one hand, the fact that the National Assembly was able to quickly block the martial law decree, which Yoon then lifted six hours later under growing pressure from the public and legislators, shows the resilience of Korea’s democracy. On the other hand, these developments reveal ongoing institutional weaknesses and challenges faced by a young democracy, with political polarization leading to mismanagement of executive-legislative relations and low public trust. Yoon nonetheless survived a December 7 impeachment vote, as all but three PPP members boycotted the parliamentary vote. Going forward, Yoon can either resign or let the impeachment process continue to unfold. The Constitution requires two-thirds of the National Assembly votes (200 of 300) to impeach the president, which means that eight members from the ruling party must support the opposition’s motion. If it passes, the Constitutional Court will hand down a final ruling. Until then, Yoon’s presidency will be suspended, with the prime minister as acting president. (According to the PPP party leader, Han Dong-hoon, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, a political appointee of Yoon’s, would run the government in close consultation with the PPP.) The next impeachment motion vote may come as early as this Saturday, December 14. As was the case with former President Park Geun Hye’s impeachment in 2017, if Yoon is impeached, a snap national election must be held within 60 days, sometime in 2025, ahead of the end of his scheduled five-year term in 2027.
Although the Constitution prevents the president from criminal prosecution during his term, exceptions exist for crimes related to insurrection or treason. The National Office of Investigation has reportedly assembled an investigation team of 120 officers, more than 60 prosecutors and investigators have formed a special team, and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials has also joined the probe.
What does it say about the broader public’s commitment to democracy?
The National Assembly’s quick rejection of the martial law decree and the massive mobilization and protests demonstrated strong institutional checks and civic engagement. Calls for Yoon’s resignation and impeachment are growing, and demonstrations and rallies are intensifying, with crowds estimated at tens of thousands—all pointing to deepening uncertainty among the public about who is the acting chief executive responsible for government decisions, including the military.
What does it mean for South Korea’s allies and its foes?
South Korea faces multiple foreign policy challenges, including North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities and the delicate diplomacy required in its alliance with the United States. North Korea has been silent so far about the current political crisis. Kim Jong Un’s eyes are on the U.S. and President-elect Trump. While the political crisis has raised concern about the impact on the U.S. alliance and beyond, some experts think that Yoon will likely be impeached, and this turmoil will be resolved within weeks or months.
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Photograph by Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images